Elections are a referendum on incumbents. And what happened to Trump means that the American people will be looking at him first and foremost to see how he responds now.
Former President Donald Trump and the Republicans have an opportunity, indeed their first opportunity, to fundamentally change the presidential race in ways that would have been hard to do before Saturday’s tragic assassination attempt on a former president.
If Trump, as he has stated, changes the tone and register of his RNC convention speech away from partisan, "pro-MAGA" rhetoric towards emphasizing the need for unity, conciliation, and cooperation in our society in the face of violence and the division, then he has a chance to, in a way – never possible previously in history of this election– to bring people together.
Not only would this endear him to swing voters, but particularly those who may dislike President Biden but had been turned off by Trump’s fiery rhetoric.
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The one thing that has been clear in the polling so far this year is that the race has been relatively breaking for Trump, as the former president has maintained a lead for the last eight or nine months.
Yes, there is an occasional poll that shows a tie or Biden with a slight lead, but fundamentally, Trump has held steady 2-3 points above Biden nationally, and an even larger lead in the key swing states.
There is also evidence of Trump making progress in a number of purple states like New Hampshire, Virginia, as well as Minnesota. However, the prospect of Trump rising above the political divisions and using the tragedy that befell him – and indeed the country – to argue for a different approach and a different kind of politics offers him something unique.
Now, assuming he can permanently alter his approach, Trump will have expanded the political map for his own race, as well as down ballot House and Senate races.
This is a very big deal. It is important for the country and for Trump’s political standing that he does in fact take a softer approach, something President Biden himself has done in his Oval Office speech.
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Make no mistake, elections are a referendum on incumbents. And what happened to Trump means that the American people will be looking at Trump and looking to him first and foremost to see how he responds on the biggest stage of all to address the horrific events of last Saturday.
As an American, I very much hope that the Republicans do not do what some have done and continue to blame the Democrats. And similarly, I do not wish to see the Democrats blame the Republicans for the events due to the GOP’s allegedly "harsh rhetoric."
It is essential that Americans come together and that the rest of the presidential campaign is civil, based on the issues, not personal attacks.
If anything good is to come from the tragedy of what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania, it will be a renewed emphasis and attention to what makes us great: our courage, our commitment to free speech, individual liberty, diversity of opinion, and world view.
Let us earnestly hope that that is the result of this horrific, unspeakable tragedy.
