California leads the nation in homelessness and trails only Hawaii for the nation’s highest gas prices, but it seems someone forgot to tell Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Ever the optimist when misconstruing data, Newsom recently took victory laps in both policy areas despite the state’s failures, which are both obvious and avoidable.
“California has dramatically slowed and reduced the growth of homelessness – making more progress than a majority of other states, the nation as a whole, and previous administrations,” Newsom wrote on X shortly after the federal government released annual data on homelessness.
“We’re continuing to lead the charge in getting people off the streets & connected to care,” Newsom added.
Many people scrolling quickly through their X feed likely got the faulty impression that California was doing something extraordinary. But a quick examination shows that, as usual, Newsom’s claims are exaggerations at best.
It’s true that California’s ever increasing homeless population grew at a slower pace in 2024 than years past. It’s also true that California’s 3.1% rate of increase was smaller than the national rate of increase, which was 18.1%.
California’s homeless population still increased, though. In fact, California still has the largest homeless population in the country, which has grown 34.6% since 2007.
In the past five years, California has spent $24 billion on programs to reduce homelessness. During that time the homeless population grew by approximately 37,000 people.
What’s even more surprising about Newsom’s claims was that the state auditor found last year that his administration had not been tracking or analyzing the effectiveness of many of the state’s key anti-homelessness initiatives.
As to why California’s homeless population grew slower than the nation as a whole likely has more to do with factors driving homelessness in other states and less to do with any success on Newsom’s part. Homelessness surged in states that absorbed influxes of migrants who needed shelter.
All of this is happening as the clock ticks on Newsom’s ridiculous claim that he would end family homelessness in California by May of 2026, which is as unrealistic as when he made a similar claim as San Francisco Mayor that he’d end homelessness in the city by 2014 (spoiler alert: it didn’t come close to happening).
Rightfully so, Newsom took a beating for his gaslighting. Newsom suffered an embarrassing correction from Community Notes on X, using much of the data cited in this column, and drew the attention of Assemblyman Josh Hoover, the Folsom Republican who led a bipartisan charge for the state’s audit of Newsom’s homelessness spending and called Newsom’s claims “completely ridiculous.”
Wayne Winegarden, an economist and colleague of mine at the non-partisan Pacific Research Institute, framed Newsom’s dilemma best.
“I see it as a huge setback to the state,” Winegarden told me in an interview. “The state is spending billions of dollars and prioritizing solving the problem, yet the numbers are still climbing. What a complete failure.”
Meanwhile, Newsom was recently bragging on X about how California drivers were reaping the benefits of California’s energy policies. But this too reads like a progressive fairytale.
“According to new data from @CalEnergy, Californians are paying less to fill up at the pump, due in part to the state’s gas price gouging & transparency efforts,” Newsom posted. “We’re protecting consumers at the pump with new transparency on the oil industry to hold Big Oil accountable.”
Newsom was comparing the average price per gallon for 2024 of $4.66 to 2022 prices, when the average was $5.75. Unsurprisingly, he had no interest in comparing California to the nation as a whole this time, as the national average last year was $3.33 per gallon.
Newsom also picked 2022 as a year for comparison because gas prices peaked then as a result of government shutdowns he either supported or implemented. The decline in prices is the result of factors like supply chain issues being resolved and not the result of anything he did.
In fact, California’s progressive policies are actually making prices significantly worse. California’s insistence on having exorbitantly high gas prices is well documented. As noted by Rob Lapsley of the California Business Roundtable, the high prices are the expected result of deliberate policy decisions.
California is in a tight competition with Hawaii for the highest gas prices in the nation. Right now, Hawaii is leading but California implemented policies recently that should push it way out in front. As Winegarden and I recently wrote in Forbes, some of these policies and taxes could add around $0.76 per gallon within the next few years.
California lawmakers are partially motivated by the belief that increased gas prices will drive down demand and push people towards electric vehicles.
However, the pain caused by the increased gas prices has an inverse relationship to income, meaning the escalating costs hurt those families the most who can afford it the least. It also means that by making matters worse for lower-income families, the state is actually driving those families further from buying EVs, while having little effect on their gasoline consumption.
Newsom’s outcomes on both homelessness and gas prices point back to his ineffectiveness as a leader and his inability to solve problems.
Instead of trying to win an argument with hot air, Newsom would be better off not saying anything and stop reminding people he is to blame.
Matt Fleming is an opinion columnist for the Southern California News Group. He is a former California Republican spokesperson and former legislative staffer. Follow him on X, @flemingwords.
