A key takeaway from the 2024 election is that, at both the national and state level, Democrats have a “brand” problem.
Indeed, even in deep-blue California, Vice President Kamala Harris’ 20-point margin of victory was a 10-point decline from President Biden’s victory four years ago.
Additionally, voters in the state rejected left-wing Mayors and District Attorneys in Oakland and Los Angeles, as well as backed a tough-on-crime ballot measure – Prop 36 – repealing 2014’s Prop 47, which had loosened criminal penalties for various offenses.
Quite simply, there are clear signs that Californians are unsatisfied with current Democratic leadership.
Current Gov. Gavin Newsom’s favorability rating is deeply underwater, less than 3-in-10 (27%) voters view him favorably versus one-half (49%) who have an unfavorable view, per aggregate polling compiled by The Hill.
Similarly, a majority (56%) of Californians think the state is heading in the wrong direction, according to Public Policy Institute of California polling.
Taken together, Democrats’ policies of increasing taxes, irresponsible fiscal management leading to a $55 billion budget deficit, expanding the size of government, and burdening the state with climate-change mandates and regulations has left the party increasingly vulnerable.
With that in mind, California’s 2026 gubernatorial election will be significant for what it reveals about both the enduring weakness of Democrats’ brand, and whether the party can start to rebuild it in this Democratic-heavy state.
Despite the contest to replace Newsom being nearly two years away, nearly 10 candidates have already declared their candidacy.
The crowded field includes: Toni Atkins, former President pro tempore of the State Senate, Stephen Cloobeck, a business executive, Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former State Controller Betty Yee, and Michael Younger.
On the Republican side, only Sharifah Hardie – a business consultant – and businessman Leo Zacky have declared thus far, although Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former State Sen. Brian Dahle are rumored to be exploring runs of their own.
And while Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2-1 in the state, California’s “top-two” primary system leaves open the door for one of the Republican challengers to advance, much as GOP candidate Steve Garvey did in this year’s Senate election.
If Democrats hope to avoid a general election where a Republican could possibly win – however small the odds – they must prioritize delivering for Californians, putting pragmatism and real- world solutions over ideology and “resistance” to Trump at all costs.
Put another way, the 2024 election made clear that, above all else, voters wanted officials who they felt could get things done, and were tired of Democrats’ focus on far-left social issues over economic concerns.
At least two candidates – Antonio Villaraigosa and Betty Yee – seem to recognize this.
Villaraigosa recently told Politico that, “the best way to lead the resistance is to demonstrate that…we can reduce the poverty rate in a state which has the highest effective poverty rate.”
In the same article, Yee noted that, “we’ve got to be mindful of Californians…I don’t know if they’re going to be all that patient with us putting up a resistance when they’re just trying to make things work in their lives.”
To his credit, Villaraigosa has also emphasized the importance of addressing the state’s rampant crime. As Mayor, he drastically increased the size of the LAPD and oversaw a major drop in violent crime in the city.
In that same vein, Stephen Cloobeck would be wise to lean into his business experience as the founder of Diamond Resorts International. Given the dire state of California’s budget and the need to lure companies back, a campaign focused on economic concerns could prove successful.
As the primary nears, whether or not Villaraigosa, Yee, Cloobeck, or any of the other candidates genuinely heed these concerns and campaign on delivering solutions remains to be seen.
It is entirely possible that the candidates try to run to the left of each other, further alienating the majority of voters tired of far-left progressivism and exacerbating the problem with the party’s brand.
However, it should be clear that in doing so, Democrats would only exacerbate the party’s weaknesses. Of course, it is unrealistic to think that California would take a drastic turn to the right, although as the 2024 election revealed, there is a subtle shift underway.
Compared to 2016, 72% of California’s counties shifted to the right according to Axios, more than triple the 21% that moved right between 2016 and 2020. That is an alarming trend for Democrats.
Ultimately, much will change between now and the primary, especially as candidates roll out their platforms.
But, given the weakness of the current Democratic Party’s brand throughout the country and in California, voters want to see candidates commit to real-world, centrist solutions focused on the economy and quality of life above all else.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
