The Pentagon Pizza Meter theory suggests that an abnormally high number of pizza orders from Washington D.C. restaurants can predict major world events.
Interest in the theory was revived in August 2024 when former New York legislator Ben Geller noted that a local pizza chain was significantly busier than usual, according to Google, while tensions were building in the Middle East.
The theory has earned meme status across social media platforms, especially among politically-minded users. It took on a whole new life after TikTok heard about it.
This long-running hypothesis is based on the idea that D.C. politicians, high-level military officers, and other Pentagon operators are hard at work while war is breaking out or other important events are unfolding, they can't leave their desks, and they need pizza to keep them going.
People in white shirts and loosened collars work late, get hungry, and are much too busy and important to microwave something, so their assistants call up the nearest place that delivers.
The theory is pervasive enough that you’re likely to see allusions to it while the term “WWIII” is trending on Twitter.
Internet users have supported the Pizza Meter Theory with screenshots of Google searches that show local restaurants labeled “extremely busy” or “busier than usual” just before news breaks about international incidents. In 2024, it was boosted yet again when Papa John’s got "busier than usual" just before Israel fired missiles into Iran on April 18.
Of course, the idea of reliably predicting historical events via pizza sales is not a science, and no scientific studies exist that find a definitive correlation between the two. Social media users have also accused one another of Photoshopping screenshots to support the theory.
Do Pentagon employees order out more when there’s a lot of work to do, just like the rest of us? Probably. Will monitoring the activity of the Pizza Hut closest to the building protect you from nuclear strikes should WWIII finally arrive? No.
Many have pointed out how 'The Pizza Meter' Wikipedia page was taken down on April 2, 2024, though not because the government had it deleted. Wiki editor Reywas92 wrote, "This is one person's anecdata that got some very brief attention, not a verified or meaningful phenomenon as the article puffs it up to be, and not something notable deserving of a standalone article. People order delivery when they work late, so what?"
In January 1991, just after the launch of Operation Desert Storm, the Chicago Tribune interviewed the owner of multiple Domino's franchises around D.C., Frank Meeks, who claimed that he could predict global incidents by the sudden spike in delivery sales at his restaurant.
Meeks told the Los Angeles Times that the single-night delivery record for the CIA back then was on Aug. 1, 1990, the day before Iraq invaded Kuwait, kicking off the Gulf War. He added that a similar surge in pizza deliveries happened in December of 1998 during the impeachment hearings of former President Bill Clinton.
The story took off, reaching CNN's Wolf Blitzer, who was a Pentagon correspondent in the early 90s.
"Bottom line for journalists: Always monitor the pizzas," he joked.
Rumor has it that the U.S. government directed the Pentagon to diversify their food orders rather than getting it all from Domino's, and to send people to pick it up rather than relying on delivery. Regardless, the trend seemed to continue, evidenced by another Frank Meeks interview with the Washington Post in 1998.
TikTok got wind of the Pizza Meter Theory in 2024, particularly after a couple explainer videos went viral in April. Popular account @the.law.says.what created a post laying out the theory for their followers on April 13 and gained close to a million views.
@the.law.says.what The infamous Pizza Meter #fyp #news #pizza #food #interesting #wow ♬ original sound - Maclen & Ashleigh
By the next day, users like @wilsonwhisk were making meme videos of people freaking out over news of high D.C. pizza sales.
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