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A new poll from the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos found that most Democrats want Joe Biden to bow out of the race, undermining his insistence that the calls to step aside are only coming from the elite. But his match-up against Donald Trump remains deadlocked, with the two men tied at 46% of the popular vote among registered voters.
The poll was conducted between July 5 and July 9, but the numbers comparing Biden and Trump remain identical to those from April. These findings, however, are an anomaly, as eight other post-debate polls show Trump with an average 3.5 percentage point edge, compared to 1 percentage point before the debate.
More concerning for Biden is the indication that everyday Americans are doubting his abilities — the poll found that 56% of Democrats want him to step aside compared to 42% that want him to keep fighting. Among adults, two out of three say he should drop out. Among independents? Seven out of ten.
The wavering support is, unsurprisingly, seemingly linked to Biden's age and mental fitness. In April, 23% of respondents said Biden is mentally sharper than Trump; in July, only 14% could say the same.
Despite Biden's exercise routines — five days a week, according to his doctor earlier this year — only 13% of those polled said Biden is more physically healthy, compared to 20% before the debate. Overall, 85% of voters polled said Biden is simply too old to serve, up four percentage points from April. Most people told pollsters that both Biden and Trump are too old for another term, reflecting general disillusionment with the candidates.
Third party candidates don't meaningfully change the dynamics of the race, the poll found, and the two men are virtually tied with independents. Trump pulls 42% of them, compared to Biden's 40%.
As to the question of Biden's possible replacement, the poll found more support for Kamala Harris than other Democratic options. Harris does particularly well with Black Americans, but faces challenges with the general electorate. Still, she beats Trump in a head-to-head battle, earning 49% of the vote to his 47%, though the difference is not statistically significant.
A racial divide persists among Biden supporters as well, with 63% of Black Democrats saying he should stay and 64% of white Democrats saying he should leave. Similar dynamics are playing out in Congress, where Biden is relying on the support of Black senators and representatives.
Biden has framed his recent challenges as coming from the top: big donors, elected officials, the Democrats with a capital D. The new numbers, however, jolt that narrative and demonstrate dissatisfaction among most of the party's fractured base.
