Can Regis Prograis reverse recent form, or will Jack Catterall score another win on Saturday?
Jack Catterall and Regis Prograis will meet in this weekend’s marquee matchup, with the pair of 140 lb veterans headlining a DAZN-streamed card from Manchester, England.
The 35-year-old Prograis (29-2, 24 KO) is looking to bounce back from a pair of dreadful performances in 2023, including a one-sided loss to Devin Haney and a very difficult win over Danielito Zorrilla. The 31-year-old Catterall (29-1, 13 KO) looks to make it a four-fight win streak following his controversial 2022 loss to Josh Taylor.
So who wins?
Rooting for Regis just in the sense of wanting to see him do a lot better than he has in his last two fights, but it’s more than the last two fights, too. When he gets into the ring with Catterall on Saturday, it will be five years to the day of the last fight we saw Prograis in that I think holds real weight, his close loss to Josh Taylor.
Since then, Prograis has embarked on a series of a professional missteps that led him to a one-off with PBC, a one-off with Triller, a one-off in Dubai that came from his decision to sign with the now-shuttered MTK Global, a one-off with the greatest promoter of all Marvin Nation, and two fights with Matchroom where he just looked cooked.
Prograis always boasted the sort of unique style that ran the risk of aging really badly, and unless he makes major changes or is somehow stunningly revitalized, he’s going to struggle with the basic-but-effective work of Catterall, who is one of the most truly consistent fighters in all of boxing, fight-to-fight and round-to-round.
Once again, Catterall won’t “wow” anyone, he won’t knock your socks off. But he will win. I think we’d all love for Regis to rock up rejuvenated and dangerous — and his power will still be something for Catterall to be careful of, for sure — but it’s really hard to sincerely pick that to happen based on recent form. I think the biggest danger for Catterall is complacency, and considering he still hasn’t lifted a world title, I think he maintains plenty of motivation these days. Catterall UD-12
It’s not that I dislike Prograis in any way, but it seems plenty clear to me from his last couple of performances that Prograis has lost his mojo and this isn’t like some Austin Powers movie where he’s going to embark on a fantastic journey to find it again.
Prograis is what he is at this point, a diminishing 35-year-old fighter who struggles against good technical boxers. Devin Haney isn’t known for his power, and was still able to completely box Prograis up for a whole 12 rounds without much trouble at all. Catterall is a good, cagey boxer too, and I think he finds similar success against Prograis where he’s able to keep him from setting up effective power shots for the most part, and that will provide a clear path to a points win over the distance. Catterall UD-12
I really, really want to believe that Prograis has a little of the magic left, but I always want to believe that about guys I loved to watch. I have a bad tendency to deny what I’m seeing when guys like Francisco Vargas start showing that they’re past it. At least with Vargas, there are two Fight of the Year winners that show why he was such a delight to watch. With Prograis, I’ll just be in a disreputable retirement home someday, ranting to no one in particular how “nobody else moved like him” and “if he hadn’t lost his belts just when COVID and promotional issues hit right in his prime...” while a bored attendant steals my medication and piles yet another blanket on my lap as my bones turn slowly to dust.
In a past discussion about how often seemingly washed-up fighters bounce back, someone mentioned Nonito Donaire. So there’s a chance! But even in his lowest moments, Donaire arguably wasn’t anywhere near what we saw from Prograis his last time out. Frankly, I don’t think a gastroenterologist’s patient bathroom at closing time has ever looked as bad as Regis looked against Haney. Against the steady, reliable competence of Jack Catterall, it’s really hard to see a Regis renaissance. I sure hope I’m wrong, though. Catterall UD-12
A dominant Prograis victory would be a boon to the stagnant super lightweight ecosystem. Between Teofimo Lopez’s inconsistency, Devin Haney’s self-imposed exile, and Subriel Matias’ recent defeat, the division is terminally sauceless at the moment. Not saying Liam Paro isn’t a good watch or that there aren’t fun up-and-comers like Adam Azim, Dalton Smith, and Tito Mercado waiting in the wings, but it could use a shot in the arm.
Really don’t think it’ll get one here, though. Prograis has shown a striking inability to cut off the ring and close the gap lately; it’s one thing to get kited by Devin Haney, but a slugger of Prograis’ pedigree shouldn’t struggle to walk down Danielito Zorrilla. Barring a stunning re-invention that I doubt Prograis is capable of at 35 years old, Catterall is more than sharp enough to stay out of his wheelhouse and punish his myriad defensive lapses.
Even with the power-up of being a Rougarou in October, he just doesn’t have it in him anymore to pull off the hunt. Catterall drops him at least once en route to a comfortable victory. Catterall UD-12
