Thomas is off to a tremendous start after his promotion to Triple-A
The Aviators feature the two hottest-hitting Oakland Athletics prospects, with both Jacob Wilson and Colby Thomas having big weeks for the team. Wilson’s two home runs pushed his Triple-A OPS over 1.000, and Thomas has three home runs already in 13 games. Down in Midland Gunnar Hoglund has kept up with his strong start to the season while Daniel Susac is showing some signs of life at the plate.
Game Results
Record: 41-41, 4-3 2nd half, 2nd in PCL West (2 GB)
Season stats
Top Performers
The additions of Colby Thomas and Jacob Wilson have done wonders for the Las Vegas offense, with both going on impressive hot streaks last week and putting up multiple home runs. Thomas crushed Sacramento over the weekend and had home runs in three straight games, getting him up in the top 15 in all of minor league baseball for the season. The only problem for Thomas right now is that his whiff rates have ticked up rather quickly, currently sitting at 33.6%.
Wilson of course is in the opposite camp, sitting out there with an absurd 3.4% whiff rate at Triple-A. It’s obviously not at all reasonable to think he can sustain near 1.167 OPS type production and there has been a lot of production due to batted ball luck, but Wilson has done nothing but hit so far and now has hits in all six games since coming off of the injured list. Wilson’s walk rate has also ticked up significantly in his 12 games with Las Vegas, sitting now at 8.9% after drawing a walk in Tuesday’s game
The best hitter in the lineup however has been Seth Brown, which really shouldn’t be a surprise given the gap between Triple-A and the major leagues, even if Brown has had his share of struggles this season. Brown is posting a ridiculous 219 wRC+, and while that is also not a sustainable level of production there is little reason to point to batted ball luck as any sort of explanation for his outburst. Brown has seven home runs in only 11 Triple-A games this season, and had four multi-hit games against Sacramento last week.
For all of the good from the offense two of the pitching staff’s most notable names were absolutely terrible, and for Joe Boyle it’s reaching genuinely concerning levels as he is moving completely in the wrong direction. Boyle walked six of the 14 batters he faced on Friday, allowing eight runs over just 1 1⁄3 innings in that start. His walks have ticked up for three consecutive starts, and over his last two he has 11 walks allowed and only one strikeout. Some of the underlying data wasn’t quite as bad for Boyle — a 41% in zone rate on his pitches is bad but not necessarily 6 walks in 1 1⁄3 innings bad — and there isn’t any red flags with regards to the quality of his raw stuff. He just hasn’t had it all season and hasn’t missed bats at as high a rate as we would expect from him. JT Ginn had two really rough outings, and while there is reason to believe there is an element of bad luck to his performances this fact still exists that he is allowing home runs at an absurd rate. Still he is missing bats (29% whiff rate) and his command hasn’t been terrible outside of his most recent outing, so the recent struggles for him shouldn’t really shift opinion on him and I still think everything could play up in the bullpen.
Game Results
Record: 43-33, 3-4 2nd half, 3rd TL South, (2 GB)
Season stats
Top Performers
Midland is fun again, as the struggling duo of Denzel Clarke and Daniel Susac have turned it around and Henry Bolte has joined the fold to bring some more energy to the lineup. Bolte came up and immediately had an outstanding game on Monday, then followed it up by striking out four times in the next game. My expectations right now for him are to see more of the latter, as he is a guy that has tended to struggle upon promotion before making the adjustments he needs to. Still it was long since time to get him out of High-A and give him a test, and Double-A will be a nice look at his pitch recognition and how he is going be able to handle higher-quality breaking balls.
Now for Susac and Clarke. Clarke has been good for quite awhile now, but it’s only just recently that his strikeout rates have really started to tumble back into a reasonable range. He only has seven strikeouts now over his last 11 games, and that hasn’t come with any sort of dip in power production. Clarke’s numbers have been a bit mediocre as he hasn’t had the same batted ball luck that inflated his numbers through May and early June, but he is still showing easy pop to all fields while cutting back on strikeout rates and finally showing a semblance of the player we saw last season. His ability to adjust his body to get to pitches in multiple parts of the zone and the strength he has to still hit the ball hard even when he doesn’t follow his ideal swing path is impressive, and right now the only thing that’s really left to see is an uptick in walks. He had one walk in the entire month of June.
Susac has had much more of an issue staying healthy throughout this season, and for the first two months really seemed completely out of sorts. An adjustment to his hand positioning that I’ve been hoping they make since the offseason may be part of the explanation for his recent surge in power, as his swing has more depth on the pull side now and he has come alive with nine extra base hits in his past 12 games. Susac is also making a lot more contact, though like Clarke his walk rate is too low, and started off the week with two home runs on Monday. Susac might be best served to spend a bit more time at DH just to keep him on the field more the rest of the season, as I’m not really as concerned with his defense at the moment and think getting him at bats is by far the more important step. Susac has been good enough of late to feel confident in him not dropping too far on prospect lists, but his pitch selection still leaves a lot to be desired.
I have been skeptical of Gunnar Hoglund this season, but he has been on quite a run lately and it’s starting to look like he can push his way back into back end starter territory. The velocity for Hoglund looks good and he is starting to tighten up his location more, though I still think he lacks a true strikeout pitch in his arsenal. He struggles to generate spin, and it might help them to develop a more vertical breaking ball just to mix in pitches as he’s going to be dependent on deception and sequencing. His feel for location is fine though, and while I wouldn’t get upset about a promotion to Triple-A I really don’t think it’s necessary especially to put a home run prone pitcher in that run environment. It may be best for Hoglund to finish out the year, healthy, in Midland and then go into spring training next year to get more looks. He struck out eight batters last week, though he’s not a guy producing a high whiff rate and is generating a lot of his strikeouts by being consistently in favorable counts.
Lansing Lugnuts
Game Results
Record: 35-40, 3-7 2nd half, 6th in MWL East, (4 GB)
Season stats
Top Performers
Henry Bolte struggled a bit to open up the second half in Lansing, with a bit of an increase overall in strikeouts compared to his recent performances, but he capped his week with a double and triple in his final game before getting shipped to Midland to start his Double-A career. Bolte showed he can handle anyone and everyone at that level, and in his first at bat of that final game got a hanging breaking ball from Jackson Jobe and crushed it off of the center field wall in Lansing. Bolte’s ability to adjust after struggling with his approach and mechanics a bit early in the season has been the driving force behind his breakout season, and while he still prone to those games in which he struggles to find contact it was clear he was ready for the next step in his career.
That leaves a lineup now in Lansing that is struggling to find impact talent. Will Simpson, Euribiel Angeles, and Brayan Buelvas all have talent and could find their ways into major league lineups in the future, but their projections sit more at backup or utility roles rather than starters. Buelvas is on a bit of a cold spell lately with Lansing, seeing his numbers overall dip significantly as he’s gotten more chase-happy and struggled to find the hard all-fields contact he showed early in the year. Angeles on the other hand has been solid, though his approach is still a red flag, and I really think it’s a matter of the clutter of middle infielders in Double and Triple-A keeping him in Lansing.
It was not a great outing for Luis Morales, as although he missed bats at a reasonable rate he was having issues with his mechanics that really caused his location to suffer. Morales fell off towards his glove side more than usual, and this created a bit of a pull in his arm path that would cause specifically his secondary pitches to miss arm side and up. His line to the plate, and his front shoulder dipping in his delivery, determined much of where he landed his pitches and whether he was able to use them to any effect. Whitecaps hitters were all but sitting on his fastball for much of the game, spitting on his well-placed sliders and hitting Morales well. Morales’s frantic pacing didn’t help him in those weaker early innings, but as the game wore on he seemed to find a bit more of the right rhythm and his mechanics dialed in more throughout his start.
Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang had an effective outing by all means, going five scoreless innings with only two hits allowed. The Whitecaps were aggressive as Zhuang pounded the zone with his pitches, and often ran themselves into bad contact early in the count. Zhuang didn’t miss many bats, however — with one strikeout looking as the only one on his register. Part of this is the right-handed heavy lineup. Zhuang’s changeup and fastball are his best two bat-missing offerings, both of which are more effective against left handed batters, and by filling more of the middle of the zone this game he had to rely on his defense. This is an approach that works well against more aggressive lower level hitters, but Zhuang really needs one of his breaking pitches to take a step forward to be able to sit where he does from an approach perspective. His fastball can miss bats in the zone, but without a dominant breaking ball he needs to work more around the edges in order to succeed at the upper levels of the minor leagues. The Athletics have been cautious with Zhuang, rightfully so given his injury history, but he needs to be pushed to Double-A as soon as possible.
Game Results
Record: 30-44, 4-6 2nd half, 3rd in CAL North, 4 GB
Season stats
Top Performers
It was a wonderful week for Nate Nankil, even better than shown above as he added a home run on Tuesday after I had already compiled the stats for everyone, and I’ve grown more impressed with Nankil as time has gone on. He is ultimately a corner outfielder which does create difficulty for him in terms of hitting enough to make that profile work, but he has done nothing but hit and shown solid zone recognition at the lower levels. His bat path and raw strength are conducive to average power at maturity, so as long as he keeps hitting I have no problems projecting him to a second division starter or a high end platoon option. It’s really time for him to be in Lansing, where the promotion of Bolte opens up a spot to play him pretty regularly. It was another rough week for Myles Naylor though, who struck out nine times.
Steven Echavarria has faced quite the inconsistency in his approach and mechanics throughout the season, which is understandable given his age and late start, but when he has good games he flashes the makings of one of the top five or so prospects in the system. I’m not nearly putting him there yet, but an overall pitch mix like his along with his athleticism should project him to potential mid-rotation arm. His start last week was his best, but he was no slouch last week either with three more scoreless innings.
Jackson Finley has been up and down for Stockton this season, which is disappointing for a college arm who should handle Single-A with ease. Finley is struggling to command his pitches well and consistently, but he’s finding a bit more of an approach in the last month that he can work with. Over the past 30 days Finley has 27 strikeouts to nine walks across 20 1⁄3 innings, and I’m fine with the Athletics moving him through the system as a starter to get him extra innings. Ultimately, barring a complete flip in his command, he is a relief prospect but one that the A’s could realistically blitz through to Triple-A next season if they wanted to. We should see some movement from guys like this after the draft when the fresh influx of talent can deepen the pool a bit and allow the Athletics the flexibility to cover innings at the lower levels.
Game Results
Record: 14-27, 5th in ACL East, 13.5 GB
Season Stats
Cesar Gonzalez - 12 G, 46 PA, 0 HR, 8.7% BB, 30.4% K, .244/.326/.366, 80 wRC+
German Ortiz - 38 G, 172 PA, 2 HR, 15.7% BB, 18.6% K, .291/.415/.376, 116 wRC+
Carlos Pacheco - 30 G, 126 PA, 1 HR, 11.1% BB, 25.4% K, .210/.360/.330, 89 wRC+
Top Performers
It’s going to be a lost season for Cesar Gonzalez, who came in as a player to watch in the ACL but after 12 games has hit the 60 day injured list. With the complex leagues ending at the end of July that is a death sentence to the remainder of his season, though hopefully he is back by instructs. Carlos Pacheco hit his second home run of the season on Tuesday, but overall his season is still a disappointment. I know he got attention from Eric Longenhagen as a player who impressed this spring, but I have a hard time seeing a 19 year old who has really never hit particularly well as a high end prospect without seeing him play regularly.
Game Results
Record: 7-13, 7th in DSL West, 8 GB
Season Stats
It was a very bad week all around for the DSL Athletics, with none of the true top prospect showing out. Sebastian Rojas has been the best player this season but had a .378 OPS last week, and Jose Ramos likewise had a .582 OPS with limited action for both. Ramos did have a leadoff single and a stolen base on Tuesday but the game quickly got suspended so isn’t on the stat sheet. Erick Matos has come off of two bad starts in a row, with a June 24th appearance that saw him allow three walks and three earned runs, then a July 1st showing with two walks and four earned runs allowed over 1 1⁄3 innings. Matos has quite a few strikeouts this year but has struggled with control, though I’m not at all surprised to see that from a kid who is 17 and already 6’4.
