Arsenal have a mountain to climb to reach the Carabao Cup final after a 2-0 defeat to Newcastle at the Emirates last night.
As I expected, Mikel Arteta picked a strong side to face a team in good form, and there was even a sign of Raheem Sterling on the bench to – nominally at least – give us another attacking option. The visitors began brightly, pressing high, and finding some space in our final third early on.
I think we should have been ahead though, Jurrien Timber somehow headed a 13th minute Declan Rice corner over the bar from close range. He’s got to put that one away. Tonali shot over for them after more after good work from Alexander Isak, but as the half went on I think the momentum changed a bit and we got more into it. On the half hour we should have scored when an excellent first time ball sent Gabriel Martinelli through. He did everything right, burst away from the chasing defenders, but crashed his shot off the keeper’s near post. Perhaps a finish to the other side gave him more chance of scoring, but one on one like that, you have to take your chance.
The consequences of that came home to roost a few minutes later when Newcastle went ahead. The keeper lumped a long free kick to the edge of the box, we didn’t win the first header, and while there was perhaps a lucky deflection into the path of Isak, Martin Odegaard was at defensive sixes and sevens, and the most in-form striker around right now made no mistake with the chance to make it 1-0.
It was Isak who made the difference in the second half too. His smart movement saw him drop off to receive a pass in our half (I think we should have been more aggressive defensively and not allowed Tonali that much time on the ball), he laid it off out wide, and kept going into our box. Declan Rice is ball watching, Thomas Partey can clearly see the danger but doesn’t react at all, and when Isak’s quick shot was saved by Raya, Timber was caught on his heels a bit as Anthony Gordon came into tuck home the rebound.
2-0 down at home, and it was an uphill battle. Almost immediately Newcastle dropped into a 4-5-1 defensive shape and did to us what Everton and others have done this season. A low block is our kryptonite, and we struggle. If you look at the stats, we had 78% possession after their second goal, but just 9 shots and 0 on target. Quite how Kai Havertz missed that header I don’t know: the mitigation will be he’s spent a week on his sickbed, but even so it’s a horrendous miss that would have given us a lifeline for what remained of this game and for the second leg.
There was a Jorginho shot from outside the box that flew over, but it was all too easy for Newcastle to deal with. Crosses into the box were meat and drink for the defence – even when we threw Gabriel up front late on – and just not enough craft or guile to find the right kind of openings. Ultimately, while there are obviously elements of our performance and personnel that can be analysed to death, last night can probably be boiled down to one simple piece of analysis: when you have top quality up front, you have a great chance of winning games like this – and Alexander Isak is 100% that.
Some will argue that without Bukayo Saka we’re missing our Isak, and that’s not unfair. If they came without him, and we had Saka, would it have been different? Who knows? Maybe … probably … but that’s not the reality we’re living in. He really was the difference maker though, clinical and efficient, but beyond that individual quality, I think there are issues of style for Arsenal to contend with as well.
A growing bug-bear for me is the way we allow teams to get completely reset by taking far too many touches in our own half. The central defenders do it, the central midfielders do it too, and by the time we shift the ball to positions where we need players to hurt the opposition, they closed down and doubled-up on. Perhaps it’s too simplistic to say we need pace, but I think that is a key ingredient that’s missing from this Arsenal side.
I don’t just mean a really fast guy who can run really fast down the wing, I mean pace of pass, speed of thought, quick movement that can unsettle defences. There’s simply not enough of that in this team, so we look one-paced, pedestrian, and become easy to defend against when the opposition is well organised and disciplined. What we get is touch touch touch touch pass touch touch pass touch touch touch pass touch touch touch pass ad infinitum and it’s energy sapping to watch.
That Martinelli moment was fantastic because we used the ball quickly after winning it in our half. Bang, three passes to get us from deep to a one on one with their keeper. Yes, I know the way teams set up against us plays a part in how often we can do this, but most of the time when that breakdown happens in our half, we look to retain possession rather than hurt the opposition. This chance was so striking because it’s so rare, and it’s an issue we have to address – not because of last night, but as a general problem with our play this season.
I’ve seen a lot of talk about our xG last night being very high but for me that was more about volume rather than quality. 23 shots in total, 6 big chances, but 0 goals. 23 attempts will rack up some xG, but we all have eyes too and we saw that this looked like an Arsenal team that is badly missing something – not just in the attacking third, but behind it too. I thought Martin Odegaard was quiet again, his form right now is wretched, but the onus can’t be on him alone to create.
It does feel like he’s missing Saka (who doesn’t) but Rice skewed quite a long way left in terms of his action areas last night, and that doesn’t give the captain anyone to play with when he’s in possession. Late on, we saw how our problems were laid bare when it was often William Saliba pushing up high to play in the space that Odegaard or Saka usually operate in on the right hand corner of the opposition box. That’s not a criticism of him, by the way, but the system that means he’s the man trying to fill that creative gap.
Finally, despite the fact that he’s only just back from a knee injury, the manager’s refusal to use Raheem Sterling from the bench was notable for me. It’s not the first time this season that we’ve been seeking a goal, and he remained unused. If he’s not even an option when we’re desperate, then he’s no option at all and you have to bring someone else in. I did wonder last night if leaving Sterling sitting down was a kind of message from Arteta to the board about what he has to work with, but when it boils right down to it, this is the forward line he and Edu put together and he has to take some responsibility for that.
There’s no doubt Arsenal need more in attack, there’s no question in my mind that we have to do business in January, but when you fail to invest in your forward line properly and – on the surface at least – prioritise defensive signings over attackers, you leave yourself open to questions and criticism, and last night laid bare some of our transfer business in recent times. Our three summer signings didn’t play a single minute of a big cup tie last night, and while the schedule might have played a part in that, it’s striking in isolation.
Afterwards, Arteta was asked about Isak, and said:
That’s what you have – the real quality up front and they can make a difference. They’re very clinical.
They were. We were not, and are not too often. And it’s a problem. If might have been a first defeat in 14 games, but it also felt like it was coming. Arteta’s insistence that it’s only ‘half-time’ in this tie is the public message he has to send, but he’ll know what a massive challenge it’s going to be to turn it around. You can’t say we have no chance, but it’s very slim, and that adds a level of importance to this weekend’s FA Cup tie against Man Utd too.
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Right, I’ll leave it there for now. We’ll have an Arsecast for you a bit later on this morning, so please join us for that. Until then, have a good one.
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