As many children in the U.S. prepare to head back to school or have already done so, the country is facing its worst COVID wave for this time of year, data show.
COVID is spreading at especially high rates for late summer and early fall around much of the country: 44 states are experiencing either high or very high COVID levels, according to Aug. 15 data from the U.S. Centers or Disease Control and Prevention. Other CDC data show that levels were higher the week ending Aug. 10, 2024, the most recent available, than in early-to-mid August in 2023 and 2022, both of which had substantial summer COVID waves.
The CDC no longer tracks total cases and primarily uses wastewater data to track COVID levels across the country, as the virus can be detected in human waste.
Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., associate professor at Tulane University, who leads the U.S.'s top COVID forecasting dashboard, shared in a Aug. 19 post on X: "We’re at 1.3 million infections/day in the U.S. This is the highest known transmission during back-to-school season all-time. An estimated 1 in 24 people in the West region are actively infectious."
Hoerger uses data from Biobot Analytics, which used to provide the CDC with its wastewater data.
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, August 19, 2024
— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) August 19, 2024
We're at 1.3 million infections/day in the U.S. This is the highest known transmission during back-to-school season all-time. An estimated 1 in 24 people in the West region are actively infectious. pic.twitter.com/zyLbtmMIF9
The CDC did not immediately respond to TODAY.com's request for comment on how the current COVID wave compares to transmission in previous back-to-school seasons.
"This is the second-largest summer wave that we've ever had," Hoerger tells TODAY.com. "2022 looks like it was a little bit bigger, but we don't know because things could still get a little bit worse."
In 2021 and 2020, COVID levels were low during back-to-school due to more widespread mitigation measures.
In 2022, the "summer wave was earlier, so its peak had passed by the start of August, so this is actually the most transmission we're seeing as most kids are going back to school," Hoerger explains.
In early August 2022, COVID wastewater levels were around 7.92, compared to 3.23 the same time of year in 2023, according to CDC data. In 2024, levels were at 8.31 the week ending Aug. 3 and 8.82 the week ending Aug. 10.
"Some kids have been back to school for a couple weeks now, but a lot of kids are just starting this week or next week, so that's a pretty difficult situation for families and schools to manage," Hoerger says.
"Last year I would have described as a large, concerning wave, but it's much smaller than this year's. So if people can remember the challenges they dealt with last year, this back-to-school season is likely to be a lot worse. That's my concern," he adds.
It’s not clear why COVID levels are higher this summer than in 2023, but Hoerger believes it may be due to people taking even fewer precautions to mitigate the spread of COVID.
There are two major ways the rest of the 2024 back-to-school season could play out, according to Dr. Richard Malley, senior infectious disease physician at Boston Children's Hospital.
The first is that summer transmission peaks soon, with many people getting exposed and their immunity boosted as a result, which could lend to a "very calm early fall season," he tells TODAY.com. The second is that the surge lasts longer, leading to "quite a few" cases into classrooms and the virus spreading among kids — though kids are at lower risk than the adult population. But Malley also points out that the latter scenario is especially concerning for high-risk kids.
"There has been a substantial summer increase in COVID all across the country, and though it has principally affected adults — most seriously older adults, people with chronic underlying conditions, most of those people who were not vaccinated — there have been sick children and some hospitalizations from children, again largely unvaccinated," Dr. William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, tells TODAY.com.
Here are some tips from Malley and Schaffner to keep kids safe this back-to-school season.
Both the CDC and the American Academy of Pediatrics recommend children 6 months and up receive the new COVID vaccine when it becomes available, anticipated for late August or early September.
"If I were a parent (of a school-age child), I would want my children first in line to get that new vaccine," Schaffner says.
For parents who have questions about giving their child the new COVID booster, Malley strongly encourages speaking with their doctor.
While most schools aren't practicing widespread masking and social distancing, Schaffner recommends talking to your child's teacher, the administration and their doctor if you'd like them to take precautions at school — which he recommends for high-risk children.
"If I were the parent of a child with diabetes or some sort of chronic heart disease or lung disease, I would be particularly cautious about them," he says. "I would have that conversation with the teacher and say, 'I'm going to encourage my child to wear the mask.'"
Adds Malley: "Masking is a personal decision, very easy to do, and a lot of people are doing it. ... There's no harm to others. There's no reason to to limit anybody's ability to make that decision."
Both Malley and Schaffner stressed the importance of staying home and isolating from other people if you have symptoms of COVID or any virus, even if you test negative for COVID. This is especially true if have high-risk people in your family.
"It's always important for a family to recognize if there are specific members of the family who are at higher risk for severe COVID," Malley says. "Those people who are at higher risk, even if they've been vaccinated, even if they've been boosted, should be protected from anybody who has the slightest symptom that could be consistent with COVID."
And regardless of COVID levels in your community, it's always beneficial to practice good hand hygiene, Malley adds.
Experts are still learning about the ebbs and flows of COVID through the year, but one thing seems true thus far: “Unlike influenza, COVID doesn’t disappear in the summer. It hangs out, and indeed there is a summer increase, and this year, it’s been quite substantial," Schaffner says. "It doesn’t go away, and COVID is not going away. We have to learn to live with it."
This article was originally published on TODAY.com
