A New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday has former President Donald Trump narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris by one percent among likely voters, one of the first leads Trump has held in a major polling outlet since Harris’ ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket.
While the lead is within the poll’s three percent margin of error, it’s a strong indicator that the race continues to be tighter than many commentators had anticipated after President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race in July.
Harris is currently favored to win the popular vote, with an overall lead of between one and two percent in polling aggregators—a much stronger hand than Biden, who was running three points behind Trump in the weeks before he withdrew his candidacy.
The poll suggests the race, while currently favoring Harris, will continue to be extremely close despite the early gains made by the Harris campaign. It may also demonstrate the limits of the vice president’s current approach of strictly limiting access to the press and providing little detail on policy and platform.
This most recent snapshot of the race may not remain accurate for long, however. The first presidential debate between Trump and Harris will be held Tuesday night, which may bring further changes to political momentum.
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