For eight years, one group’s response bias has been playing havoc with poll accuracy.
By the end of July, it had become clear that Joe Biden was going to lose the 2024 presidential election in a landslide. Democratic internals were not worried about Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania but New Mexico, Virginia, and New Jersey. Yet polls remained relatively tight nationally because Biden’s considerable support came from one demographic group: older white voters.
Quinnipiac’s last poll before Biden dropped out had him leading Trump among senior citizens by eight points; the New York Times/Siena and NPR/Marist polls gave Biden a four-point lead with Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation, Fox News had the 46th president tied with his predecessor. In contrast, the Washington Post/ABC poll gave Trump just a point lead among this crucial demographic.
So, did Joe Biden have a unique ability to win over these voters, perhaps because of his advanced age? No; it was that older white liberals were answering the polls at a greater frequency than the general public.
It’s called polling response bias, and it’s the reason that voters were shocked at Trump’s 2016 victory and how close 2020 was despite Clinton and Biden’s monumental leads. Older white liberals’ tendency to become “Karens,” telling anyone within an eyeshot their opinion, is destroying the reliability of the polling industry.
According to Pew Research’s analysis of the last two presidential elections, Trump defeated Clinton by nine and Biden by four percent among voters over 65. Still, in the run-up to the election, pollsters predicted a blue wave led by an army of gray-haired voters.
In the last few weeks before the election, Biden was crushing Trump among seniors in most national polls: Quinnipiac said Biden would win voters 65 and up by 15 points, Emerson by 12, CNN by 11, The New York Times/Siena and Fox News by 10, NPR/Marist by nine, YouGov/Economist by four points USA Today by two, ABC/Washington Post had him up a point.
This wasn’t the first time this happened. In 2016, key swing states had Clinton outperforming Trump among senior citizens.
According to exit polls, Trump beat Clinton by 23 points among senior citizens in North Carolina, but polls leading up to the election had his victory far narrower. Monmouth and the New York Times had his lead at 11 points, CNN had him up five, and Elon University tied them.
Likewise, in Pennsylvania, Trump beat Clinton by 10 points among seniors in exit polls. Still, serious pollsters undervalued his support among this key demographic group in the last few weeks of the election. CNN had Clinton leading Trump by four, as did Monmouth.
While pollsters have worked at updating models after the embarrassment that was 2016 and 2020, the same issue is occurring in 2024.
With less than 70 days to go, Kamala Harris’s marginal lead in polls is built off the back of a group she will lose, and probably somewhere in the margin Biden and Hillary lost: four to nine points. The only national public polls with crosstabs available to have Trump in this range are Pew Research, which has the largest national sample size of 10,000 people, and the New York Times/Siena poll. Pew shows him besting the vice president by six points among voters over 65, while she leads in the national poll by a single point, while the New York Times has Trump with a single-point advantage overall while winning seniors by five.
National polls like Fairleigh Dickson University have Harris beating Trump among seniors by 16 points, NPR/Marist has the Vice President leading by 11 points among Baby Boomers and two among the Silent Generation, Marquette has her up by four, Fox News has her up by two, Emerson has them tied, ABC/Washington Post has Trump up by just two.
In the swing states, the polls are even more lopsided regarding seniors.
The New York Times/Siena poll, considered one of the most accurate in the country, has Kamala leading or outperforming Biden’s 2020 numbers among seniors in virtually every swing state. According to their polls, she leads among voters over 65 years old by 20 points in Michigan, 10 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and two points in Arizona. The pollster has Trump leading by five in Georgia and North Carolina and seven in Nevada.
In 2020, Trump performed significantly better against Biden among seniors in most of those states. According to the exit polls, he won voters 65 years and older by 19 points in North Carolina, 12 points in Georgia, seven in Nevada and Pennsylvania, six in Wisconsin, and a point in Arizona. Biden won seniors in Michigan by two points.
And the New York Times/Siena poll remains one of the more accurate among this crucial demographic. Quinnipiac has Kamala winning the gray vote by three in Pennsylvania, Marquette has her leading by five in Wisconsin, SurveyUSA has Kamala up 10 in North Carolina, and Landmark Communications has Trump up by just two in Georgia.
Older white liberals’ response bias created the illusion that there was a silent Trump voter in the last two presidential elections, and they’re doing it again.
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