Turkey’s president seems to be betting on a new occupant in the White House.
The post Erdogan Prepares for Horse-Trading With a Victorious Trump appeared first on The American Conservative.
Turkey’s president seems to be betting on a new occupant in the White House.
The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s interactions with Donald Trump, contrasted with his more reserved attitude to President Joe Biden, not only indicates Erdogan’s affinity for the former president, but it also exemplifies a larger, deliberate strategy aimed at increasing Turkey’s geopolitical leverage and preparing for horse-trading with Trump.
Erdogan’s congratulatory call to Trump on Thursday was noticeably more immediate and enthusiastic than his delayed and cautious response approach to Biden. Erdogan praised Trump’s unifying message in the aftermath of the attempt on his life, as well as his leadership in eliminating polarization.
He also congratulated Trump on his official nomination as the Republican Party’s nominee for the forthcoming presidential election prior to Trump accepting it, expressing optimism for positive outcomes for both the American people and Turkey-U.S. ties.
In sharp contrast, Erdogan waited four days after media sources pronounced Biden the 2020 winner before extending his congratulations, making Turkey the last U.S. ally in the region to do so. This delay was highlighted later in 2023, when Biden congratulated Erdogan just a day after his re-election—perhaps a misplay demonstrating weakness on Biden’s part.
Erdogan’s early support for Trump can be understood in a larger political and strategic context. Trump publicly praised Erdogan’s leadership style, calling him “a friend” and a “hell of a leader.” Despite repeated conflicts, mutual respect and admiration were critical to sustaining healthy relations between the two countries during Trump’s administration.
Trump stressed the exclusivity of his dialogue with Erdogan in an August 2020 speech in Old Forge, Pennsylvania. Trump claimed that one of the world’s top leaders encouraged him to contact Erdogan because he is the only one Erdogan “respects” in the international arena.
Noting that he gets on “very well” with Erdogan, Trump stated that the leader had confided in him that he was the only one Erdogan would genuinely “listen to.” When Trump inquired if this deference was owed to the United States, the leader emphasized that it was actually due to Trump personally.
Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, emphasizes the importance of Erdogan-Trump connections, which Reuters has dubbed a “bromance.” According to Cagaptay, the affection between Trump and Erdogan was a crucial reason why Turkey-U.S. relations did not disintegrate totally during Trump’s presidency. Nevertheless, tremendous enmity remained between the two NATO allies’ bureaucracies.
The Biden administration has been distinguished by a complicated relationship with Turkey, with difficulties stretching back to his vice presidency. In 2014, Biden’s comments implying that Turkey had indirectly funded Islamist groups in Syria sparked a diplomatic crisis. The Turkish government responded harshly, causing Biden to relax his guard by issuing a formal apology in an attempt to mend relations.
These early strains laid the foundation for Biden’s administration’s difficulties with Turkey. Biden received criticism from Turkish officials during his first year in office for a social media video in which he expressed support for Turkey’s largest opposition party, CHP. Following this development, the Turkish Presidential Spokesperson Kalin wrote on Twitter that Biden’s appraisal of Turkey was “sheer ignorance, arrogance, and hypocrisy.”
Recently, Biden touted Turkey’s acceptance of Sweden’s NATO membership as a political victory for the United States. Although the Biden administration played an important part in Sweden’s ascent, the outcome did not directly benefit the United States. Erdogan, on the other hand, was able to obtain important concessions from Sweden, including strengthened anti-terrorism laws, as well as an agreement from the United States to supply the Block-70 F-16 fighter aircraft to Turkey. These results helped Turkey and Sweden directly, whereas the Biden administration’s gains were far less tangible.
Erdogan’s foreign policy is fundamentally driven by geostrategy, leveraging Turkey’s position as a bridge between East and West. He has maintained a balanced relationship with major nations, leveraging both sides to enhance Turkey’s benefits. The most significant effort in this policy was Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400 defense system from Russia while participating in the U.S. F-35 program. (It was eventually ejected from the latter for the former.)
A recent development indicates that Erdogan is preparing to bargain with Trump after the U.S. elections. Despite being a NATO member, Erdogan has attempted to develop ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, even expressing a desire to join as a permanent member. This measure is intended to acquire leverage against NATO and might have a big impact on future Turkish-U.S. relations, especially if Trump is re-elected.
Erdogan’s strategic alliance with the SCO provides a counterbalance to Western dominance, strengthening Turkey’s geopolitical position. Erdogan’s established relationships with the SCO might be critical in renegotiating Turkey-U.S. relations, potentially giving Turkey more clout. If Trump returns to power, expect a return to bilateral deal-making.
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