State of the Union: Second round projections indicate hung parliament.
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In the first round of France’s legislative elections, Marine Le Pen’s conservative Rassemblement National party leads with 33.2 percent of the vote, followed by the left-leaning Nouveau Front Populaire with 28 percent. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble party received only 20 percent of the vote, finishing in third.
Currently, projections indicate that the result of the second round will deliver a hung parliament, though Le Pen’s conservative bloc would be the largest in the National Assembly by a significant margin. However, it is still possible for Le Pen to win an outright majority of seats, even if that result is less likely than before the first round.
In France’s 2022 legislative election, Macron’s party won a plurality of 245 seats in the National Assembly, whereas the far-left bloc won 131 and Le Pen won 89. This year, with Le Pen set to win a plurality of seats, in all likelihood between 263 and 284, with a majority of 289 entirely possible, yesterday’s results represent a seismic shift in French politics towards the right.
Should RN win a majority, or enough seats to create a coalition with other conservatives, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella would become Prime Minister. Should RN only win a plurality, they would be offered the Premiership, but have indicated that they would not accept it, as doing so would allow other parties to launch a vote of no confidence against them. If RN does decline the Premiership, Macron can appoint a non-partisan government and cabinet.
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