This year has seen an unusually quiet stretch of hurricane season, and experts think the trend is likely to continue.
That's according to a new two-week hurricane forecast from a team of hurricane experts at Colorado State University. The team's latest forecast gives a 60 percent chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin between Sept. 3–16, with a 30 percent chance of normal activity and just a 10 percent chance of above-normal activity. This comes during what is typically the climatological peak of the season, the report notes.
It continues a stretch of abnormally low tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic, with the period from Aug. 12–Sept. 3 representing the longest quiet stretch in 56 years. An average season would have produced seven named tropical storms, two hurricanes, and one major hurricane, while so far we have seen just five named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane.
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The CSU report's co-author Dr. Phil Klotzbach told FOX Weather that there are several factors inhibiting tropical cyclone development.
"I think the big problem has been the position of the monsoon trough over Africa," Klotzbach said. "We’ve had anomalous cooling in the Gulf of Guinea region, associated with a trend towards Atlantic Niña (although we may not officially meet the definition). Because of this, we have a strong cross-equatorial (sea surface temperature) and sea level pressure gradient, helping to push the monsoon trough too far north if you’re looking for hurricane activity."
In other words, conditions simply haven't been right for hurricane development, despite predictions earlier this year that high sea surface temperatures and the predicted return of La Niña would lead to an above-average season.
There's still a chance that the latter part of the season might turn things around; Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1–Nov. 30. "Largescale environmental conditions look relatively unfavorable for the next ~7 days but look to get more conducive for tropical cyclone activity towards the middle of September," the report states.
For now, however, the forecast is looking quiet.
