Ankara headed West

МОСКВА, 27 февраля 2022, Институт РУССТРАТ.   The economic crisis that has broken out in Turkey not only pushes people to street protests because of the financial difficulties they are experiencing, but also forces AKP to change the course of foreign policy reactions. Food prices have long been above inflation. For this reason, the minimum wage increase carried out at the beginning of each year lags behind high food prices. Even government-controlled official data published by the Turkish Institute of Statistics (TUIK) show that economic indicators have reached serious proportions. Official data calculated on the basis of the average for Turkey show that in the three years from January 2018 to January 2021, 71 out of 116 basic foodstuffs rose in price by more than 76%. According to labour force statistics published by the same Institute of Statistics of Turkey (TUIK), in Turkey in 2021, the number of unemployed aged 15 years and older amounted to 8,794,000 people. The annual inflation rate, which was at 36.08% in December 2021, rose to 48.69% in January 2022. The figures calculated by the Independent Inflation Analysis Group (ENAG) are significantly higher than official data. The Group reported that in January 2022, annual inflation reached 114.87%. In addition, the figures coming from industrial zones also increase the burden on the economy. For example, according to data for January 2022 published by the Association of the Automotive Industry (OSD), production in the automotive industry amounted to 47,778 units, showing a decrease of 31%. People took to the streets, cries of "government, resign" are increasingly heard After the increase in the cost of electricity by 127%, citizens, having received huge bills to pay, protested against the government. Thousands of people in Mardin, Diyarbakir and Izmir took to the streets, outraged at the large sums in electricity bills, and called on the government to resign. Citizens who rebelled against the increase in the cost of electricity publicly burned invoices. Citizens shouted slogans: “Tayyip, resign!", "government resign!", "DEDAŞ (ed. joint-stock company for the distribution of electricity Dicle) resign!". The police used tear gas and water cannons against citizens who were waiting for explanations from the authorities. The Women's Assembly of the platform "We will Stop Femicide" held a meeting in Istanbul, protesting against the exorbitant increase in electricity and natural gas prices, as well as the cost of living. The women who staged the protest managed to hold it, dancing and singing songs with pots and pans in their hands, despite periodic attempts by the police to prevent them. The police had a tough standoff against citizens who gathered to protest against electricity bills in Eskişehir. From time to time there were fights between the townspeople and the police. The townspeople unfurled a banner with the words "Enough is enough, return the previous prices" and chanted slogans: "Don't be silent, shout; ‘no’ to price increases" and “government, resign”. The police prevented citizens wishing to protest with slogans, referring to the fact that "permission was not received from the governorate”. 11 mayors of metropolitan municipalities appealed to the government due to economic difficulties and increased costs. The appeal noted that: "The burden on our municipalities has become unaffordable”. The statement, which noted a serious increase in prices before and after the New Year in many areas where the metropolitan municipalities operate, also states that “a serious increase in prices for these types of services that our citizens constantly use in their daily lives caused difficulties on the part of local authorities in terms of providing services, creating fears about the future”. Noting that sharp spikes in electricity and diesel fuel prices have hampered the operation of public transport, the statement also states that "the increase in electricity prices for the provision of transport services, especially when using the metro and trams, as well as due to frequent price spikes for diesel fuel for wheeled vehicles and the increase in prices for public transport has already led to interruptions in its work”. The impact of the economic crisis on foreign policy Last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan went to Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), for a two-day official visit. The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, visited Turkey in November, and the two countries signed many agreements. Ankara, which attaches great importance to live money and investments from the Persian Gulf countries for the Turkish economy, which is going through a difficult period, sought to find a compromise with Abu Dhabi on these issues, and in such an environment nine different cooperation agreements were signed in November. Erdogan's latest visit is regarded as a new step towards the rapid development of relations after many years of tension. Recall that Ankara accused the UAE of supporting the coup on July 15, 2016. This step, made based on the foreign policy conditions of that period, has now turned into other expectations at the request of the UK and the US. AKP, forced to establish relations with the "West", opens new pages even with Israel. In his recent speech, Erdogan invited the Israeli Prime Minister to Turkey. Regarding the visit to the UAE, Erdogan wrote an article for a special supplement about Turkey in the Khaleej Times newspaper published in the country. In the article, he noted: "Turkey is one of the rare countries that are trying to establish a balance between their foreign policy interests and peace and stability. Speaking on behalf of Turkey, we do not consider the security and stability of the United Arab Emirates separately from the security and stability of our own country. We sincerely believe in the importance of deepening our cooperation in this context in the coming period." The visit took place as a result of steps taken last year to normalise bilateral relations after nine years of tension. During Al Nahyan's visit on November 24, nine investment agreements were signed covering the fields of energy, petrochemicals, technology, transport, infrastructure, healthcare, financial services, food sector and agriculture, and Abu Dhabi Development Holding allocated $10 billion to implement the agreements. During Erdogan's visit, issues of cooperation in many areas were discussed, such as cooperation in investment, media and communications, cooperation in the defence industry, land and sea transport, as well as in agriculture, culture and healthcare, industry and advanced technologies. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, shared on his social network account that "this visit also corresponds to the UAE's tendencies to strengthen bridges of cooperation aimed at stability and prosperity of the region”, and noted that the visit opened a new positive page. Turkey and the UAE, whose relations were so damaged that until recently they accused each other of "hostile" behaviour in the international arena and in many regional issues, have strengthened their efforts to establish relations through mutual visits since 2021. The lifting in early 2021 of the embargo imposed since 2017 by the UAE and Saudi Arabia against Qatar, one of Turkey's most important regional allies, has eliminated an important problem area. This was followed by the establishment of mutual contacts and visits between Turkey and Egypt. This, in turn, smoothed the tension between the UAE, which supports the government of Sisi, who came to power as a result of a coup in Egypt, and Turkey, which until recently did not consider this government "legitimate". During the same period, a ceasefire was announced in Libya, another problem zone; the siege operation of Khalifa Haftar, supported by the UAE, against the government of Tripoli, supported by Turkey, ended. Softening of anti-Western discourses In general, President Erdogan's anti-Western rhetoric has undergone changes. For example, in the face of a re-escalation of tensions in energy disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean, he refrains from a tough position that contradicts his previous statements and the thesis of a "Blue Homeland". Faced with some sanctions from the EU after the tensions that arose in 2019 regarding energy fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey withdrew its drilling and seismic exploration vessels from the region under the excuse of "maintenance". Erdogan only expressed "regret" that the Greek administration of Southern Cyprus had issued new drilling licenses to the Qatar-USA and France-Italy consortia in the exclusive economic zones (EEZ). The Greek administration of Southern Cyprus has granted the partnership of the American ExxonMobile and the Qatari state oil company Quatar Petroleum (QP) a license for seismic exploration and drilling in the 5th section of the declared EEZ in the Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, French Total and Italian ENI received licenses for the 10th section adjacent to the 5th section. Turkey claims that part of the 5th section, the license for which was transferred to the American-Qatari consortium, is under the sovereignty of Turkey and violates the continental shelf and maritime borders. In connection with the issuance of new licenses in this region, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Greek administration of Southern Cyprus violated international law. The ministry's statement notes that: "Part of the license area on the 5th site, which is planned for natural gas exploration and declared unilaterally by the Greek Cypriot administration, violates the continental shelf of Turkey. We inform you that no foreign country, company or ship will be allowed to explore for hydrocarbons in the maritime jurisdictions of Turkey without permission." In 2019, the seismic research vessels Piri Reis and Oruç Reis, owned by the Turkish Oil Corporation (TPAO), were sent to the region accompanied by the Turkish fleet on the grounds that the territorial waters of Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) were violated during natural gas exploration, which increased tensions in the region. After that, based on the decisions of the EU foreign ministers, and then the decisions taken at the EU leaders' summit, Turkey was accused of violating the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and international law, and it was decided to impose sanctions. At the first stage, due to the course of events and the position of Turkey, it was decided to expand the scope of sanctions, extending them to some TPAO leaders. However, after the research vessels belonging to TPAO arrived at the port of Antalya due to maintenance, tensions subsided. In November, EU foreign ministers extended sanctions against Turkey until November 2022. In connection with these events, which took place shortly before his visit to Qatar, many were interested in Erdogan's position and whether he would ask the Emir of Qatar al-Thani, whom he calls "my friend and brother", to withdraw the Qatari state oil company from the ExxonMobile consortium. Erdogan did not address this issue on his way to Qatar and did not comment on it in any way. On his return from Qatar, he gently shifted the topic of conversation from this issue. Erdogan's silence about Qatar being a partner in the disputed license area, content with expressing regret, reinforced the impression that the economic costs faced by Turkey, which was isolated and in some sense excluded due to its policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, as well as financial difficulties, were the reason why it avoids harsh statements, as it was before.  Demonstrating a more restrained stance towards the Eastern Mediterranean, crowned with "economic sanctions", while Erdogan challenged the EU on issues of fundamental rights and freedoms, human rights, independence of the judiciary and the rule of law and other topics, and similarly refraining from speaking out against Qatar, which is part of this conflict, is the result of an economic impasse. All this indicates that the increase in the number of street demonstrations and the fact that there is about a year left before the elections are signs that Erdogan will make new concessions to Western countries.