Business leaders make their 2026 predictions for the Magnificent 7: ‘I’d rather be in Jensen’s seat than anywhere else’
- In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady reports on what’s next for the Magnificent 7.
- The big story: Fed Day fallout.
- The markets: Mixed, with U.S. stocks poised to open lower.
- Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. What do business leaders predict next year for the Magnificent 7? They know all too well how Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla have delivered more than half of the S&P 500’s gains in recent years, setting a high bar for everyone else to clear. But things change: One minute, Alphabet is behind the curve on AI and then Google’s latest Gemini launch sparked a “Code Red” from OpenAI’s Sam Altman.
Earlier this week, while speaking with former Cisco CEO John Chambers about his tech predictions for the year ahead, our discussion turned to his outlook for the Magnificent 7. Having built Cisco from a router manufacturer to the world’s most valuable company in March 2000—and since nurtured a new generation of unicorns through JC2 Ventures—Chambers is a student of market shifts.
He believes 2026 will be a year of divergence within the Magnificent 7. “Two or three do real well, two or three do not do well at all and you have one or two in the middle,” he told me. “If I were betting on momentum today, I would bet Google (Alphabet), Microsoft and Nvidia. By the way, Google would not have made that list a year ago.”
I subsequently asked two dozen leaders at the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference and the Fortune CEO Initiative dinner in San Francisco for their views on the Mag 7. Alphabet was also the winner. The primary source of enthusiasm is Gemini 3, its latest AI model. Though as one CEO cautioned: “I’m more confident about the health of the business than the health of the stock.”
Microsoft and Nvidia were more of a toss-up for second among the leaders I polled. A Fortune 100 leader pointed out that Microsoft has “deep relationships in the enterprise and something tangible to offer in AI,” while an enterprise-tech leader pointed to its struggles with Copilot. As for Nvidia: “I’d rather be in Jensen’s seat than anywhere else,” said one AI founder.
The company that prompted most debate: Amazon. Some ranked it top as a growth bet for next year, saying it’s gaining on AI rivals; others said last, arguing it’s “not attracting top talent.” Several were lukewarm for reasons ranging from recession fears to the Netflix-Warner Bros. deal. Meta also got a mixed prognosis, with one entrepreneur telling me “you can’t win with low morale.”
Apple and Tesla attracted the most pessimism. Several leaders pointed to the departure of key leaders at Apple, along with its mature product line and lack of visible leadership in AI. And the word cloud around Tesla included “China,” “distracted,” “policy risk,” “consumers,” and “Elon Musk.” Said one dinner attendee: “Go test drive a BYD.”
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com