If the tobacco industry shut down tomorrow, the world would be a better place. If the oil industry shut down, we’d return to the dark ages.
Good morning.
“I’m done with fossil fuels,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer sputtered after Exxon and Chevron reported disappointing earnings Friday morning. “They’re just done. We’re starting to see divestment all over the world… These stocks don’t want to be owned by young people… The world’s turned on them… They’re tobacco.”
Cramer may be right about investor sentiment. Energy today accounts for just 3.8% of the value of the S&P 500—down from 16% in 2008. And the sharp market reaction on Friday shows even the remaining investors are skittish. Exxon stock fell 4.1% and Chevron fell 3.8%, wiping out $19 billion in market value.
But Cramer’s wrong comparing oil to tobacco. If the tobacco industry shut down tomorrow, the world would be a better place. If the oil industry shut down, we’d return to the dark ages, with human suffering on an unprecedented scale. Global demand for oil and gas, according to this McKinsey report, won’t peak until after 2030. In the meantime, the industry needs to keep doing what it is doing. Shunning oil and gas stocks is a spectacularly silly way to fight climate change.
So what’s an investor who’s concerned about climate change to do? Well first of all, don’t focus on the product, focus on the production. Investors (and regulators) should be riding herd on producers to control gas flaring and methane emissions. They should pressure them to invest in cleaner production methods, and in alternative fuels. And they should be skeptical of companies planning massive investments to reach more supply. All of that points to picking Chevron over Exxon. Indeed, this may be one case where share buybacks make sense. If Chevron can’t create the energy future itself, better to free up its capital for those who can.
Separately, my vote for the best Super Bowl ad this year goes to Budweiser. Director Katherine Bigelow’s ode to the “typical American” was a beautiful antidote to the divisiveness fueled by impeachment proceedings and primary season. You can watch it here.
If you prefer a good laugh to an uplifting message, second choice is Hyundai’s hilarious celebrity riff on Boston accents promoting its new “Smaht Pahk” technology.
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Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
