Armenian expert labels US-Israeli strikes on Iran as grand geoeconomic calculus
ArmInfo. The US-Israeli strikes on Iran should be viewed not only from a military-security perspective, but also from a geoeconomic perspective. From this viewpoint, the key issue is the control over energy flows and the redistribution of global influence through their management, as stated by Vahe Davtyan, an expert in cross-border transport and energy projects, political scientist, and PhD, on his Telegram channel.
According to him, the first direction is the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20-25% of global oil supplies and up to 30% of liquefied natural gas pass. "This is a kind of 'choke point' for the global energy market. Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the strait. If Washington achieves regime change in Iran and ensures ratification of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, Tehran's ability to impede freedom of navigation will be significantly limited legally. Such a configuration fits perfectly with the US strategy in the oil sector," the expert noted.
In this context, Davtyan is confident that the Venezuelan direction should also be taken into account. He believes that Washington's increased activity around Caracas is effectively aimed at establishing controlled access to Venezuela's colossal oil resources and strengthening the US position as a key exporter and market regulator. The control over Hormuz and Venezuelan resources form a new configuration for managing global supplies.
"The second vector is the Caspian Basin. The emergence of a new political reality in Iran could prompt the ratification of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea and create new legal and political grounds for advancing US regional interests. The TRIPP project, which should be considered as part of a broader geostrategy, plays a significant role in these calculations. If the legal preconditions for constructing the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline emerge, the United States will have the opportunity to strengthen its influence in Central Asia, contain Russia, and influence the diversification strategy of hydrocarbon exports to the European Union through TRIPP. The declared corridor width of 500 meters already points to a significantly larger project configuration," the political scientist added.
According to him, the third vector is China, as Iran remains one of Beijing's key oil suppliers. In this regard, Davtyan continued, pressure on Tehran fits seamlessly into the logic of the US-Chinese geoeconomic standoff. Control over oil flows means influencing China's industrial and financial stability.
Finally, there's the dollar factor. Control over oil markets is one of the central mechanisms for strengthening the US's primary geopolitical instrument-the dollar. Over the past five years, the dollar's share of international transactions has declined from 61% to 41%. Strengthening the US's position in oil markets could slow or even halt this trend. Dollarization of energy flows means the restoration of financial leverage.
"Against the backdrop of Israeli strikes, the oil price has already risen by approximately 3%, approaching $73 per barrel. This is only the initial market reaction. However, the fundamental question is not short-term price volatility, but rather who will control commodity corridors and the financial flows derived from them. Therefore, what is happening should be interpreted as an attempt at a large-scale reconfiguration. This is not just about Iran, but about the redistribution of control over the global geoeconomic architecture," Davtyan concluded. -