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Electric vehicle economics: How lithium-ion cell costs impact EV prices

The cell costs in this article consider material prices and manufacturing costs. Taxes and profit margins are excluded.

Key takeaways

  • Li-ion cell costs are at a record low, having dropped 50 – 60 % between Jan 22 and Aug 24 in China, and enabling a new era of affordable EVs.
  • Between this period, the cost of Li-ion cells inside the Tesla Model 3 Base as a % of its retail price fell from 15% to 7.5%.
  • The conditions in the upstream supply chain that have enabled these low cell costs are unsustainable and raw material prices are expected to rise.
  • These prices now need to stabilize at levels that protect downstream OEM margins whilst incentivizing upstream supply expansion to meet future demand.

Lithium prices have fallen 86% between Jan 2023 and Aug 2024, leading to Li-ion costs falling by 50-60 %

Since 2022, battery raw material (BRM) prices have been dropping sharply amidst a market oversupply. As of August 2024, the prices of lithium carbonate (cif CJK, MB-LI-0029) and lithium hydroxide (cif CJK, MB-LI-0033) had fallen to just 14% of their January 2023 levels. Meanwhile, nickel sulfate exw China (MB-Ni-0244) saw a 30% reduction, and iron phosphate (MB-FEP-0001) declined by 53% over the same period [Fig 1].

Li-ion cell costs as a result have fallen by 50-60 % [Fig 2]. LFP prismatic cell costs in China are close to 49 $/kWh with NCM-811 prismatic cells at 60 $/kWh. In South Korea, NCM-811 cylindrical cells are 67.1 $/kWh.

Low cell costs have enabled a new era of affordable EVs

Driven mainly by these low cell costs, many passenger BEVs in China are already priced below their equivalent internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts. As these high-quality EVs from China enter Western markets and EV adoption progresses — albeit at a slower rate than in recent times — understanding battery cost structures and how raw material prices affect cell cost is increasingly crucial for OEMs and other stakeholders to sustain the transition to electric mobility. Transparent cost breakdowns are also vital for insurance companies as they assess the complex, and often expensive, repairs associated with EVs. Table 1 summarises the EVs and battery packs discussed further in this article.

The average price of a passenger internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle in the UK is £35,000 ($46,000), which is comparable to the price of the BYD Seal (which has been subject to trade tariffs). Furthermore, affordable BEVs (< £25,000) will soon enter Western markets, with models from Dacia, Citroen, Fiat, Renault, and Vauxhall expected to be available in the UK later this year.

Lithium accounts for just 2-3% of the cell mass, but 10-13% of the cell cost

The 4,416 individual NCM-811 cells found in just one Tesla Model 3 LR battery pack contain 7.3 kg of lithium (requiring 44.2 kg of lithium hydroxide), 50.3 kg of nickel, 6.5 kg of cobalt, and 6 kg of manganese, while the Model 3 Base RWD pack contains 6.4 kg of lithium (33.8 kg of lithium carbonate) and 44.4 kg of iron in its LFP cells. For the BYD Seal and Atto 3, the Seal pack requires 8.8 kg of lithium (46.7 kg of lithium carbonate) and 62.1 kg of iron, whereas the Atto 3 needs 6.5 kg of lithium (34.5 kg of lithium carbonate) and 45.8 kg of iron. These quantities refer solely to the cells.

In all the packs, the mass of natural graphite is the heaviest component, with 131.8 kg needed for the BYD Seal pack. Another significant observation is the difference in electrolyte required between the Tesla Model 3 LR pack (25.4 kg) compared to the other packs (78 kg for the similarly sized Seal pack).

Discussions on developing Western supply chains often focus on AAM and CAM production and overlook the need to develop separators, electrolytes, and current collectors, which are also needed in large quantities. For example, the 60 kWh pack found in the Tesla Model 3 Base requires 10.9 kg of separator, 70.8 kg of electrolyte, 16.6 kg of copper foil, and 11.2 kg of aluminium foil. Fig 3 looks at the costs associated with all the materials found in each EV, in $/pack.

LFP cells produced in China are 25% cheaper than NCM-811 cells produced in South Korea

The two LFP cells, produced in China, have a comparable cost of just under 50 $/kWh, while the LG NCM-811 cell, manufactured in South Korea, costs 67.1 $/kWh. This difference is due to LFP’s lower material costs and cheaper manufacturing costs in China. Despite lithium’s relatively low price, it represents a disproportionately high proportion of cell cost, accounting for 10-13% of the total cost despite making up only 2-3% of the cell mass in all three cells. 21-24% of the overall cell cost in all three cells is attributed to manufacturing. CAM production costs account for 12.6% of the LG NCM-811 cell’s cost, compared to around 5% for the LFP cells. The remaining costs are associated with the materials for the cells.

The estimated value of the NCM-811 cells in the Tesla Model 3 LR battery pack is $5,243 as of August 2024. In comparison, the LFP battery packs, whilst offering less range per kWh, are significantly cheaper. The costs are $2,925 for the Model 3 Base, $4,174 for the BYD Seal, and $3,081 for the BYD Atto 3. When considering range, this translates to $10/km for the Model 3 LR, and $7, $8.7, and $9.3/km for the Model 3 Base, BYD Seal, and BYD Atto 3 respectively.

The cost of the cells in the Tesla Model 3 Base model in August 2024 was 7.5% of the price of the EV, down from 15% at the start of 2023.

Fig 4 presents the price of the Tesla Model 3 in the USA and how the value of its cells as a % of its retail price have changed since Jan 2023. Before its sales recently ended, the LFP cells accounted for roughly 7.5 % of its price, down from 15% at the start of 2023, and improving the profitability of the vehicle.

This is a promising sign that EV OEMs can now enjoy increased profitability and further invest in improving EV technology, aiding the transition to a greener future. However, the conditions that enabled such low cell costs are unsustainable, with many upstream stakeholders struggling to stay afloat financially and expand their operations amidst thinning margins.

Summary

Falling raw material prices and other economic factors have driven cell costs to historic lows. However, this current landscape is unsustainable, as many upstream miners, refiners, and pCAM/CAM producers are struggling to maintain or scale operations. While raw material prices are expected to rise, they must stabilize at levels that support downstream OEM profitability whilst incentivizing sufficient upstream supply to meet demand. Ensuring stable prices is critical for long-term, sustainable growth in the EV sector.

To promote widespread EV adoption, vehicle prices must continue to decline. To offset potential EV price increases due to rising cell costs, OEMs can focus on producing cells with higher energy density, improved safety, and longer lifespans. Optimizing battery pack designs and enhancing EV powertrain efficiency will also help in keeping EVs affordable support the continued expansion of electric mobility.

Get a sample of the Fastmarkets Battery Cost Index

For more information on cell costs, fill in the form below for the free sample of the Fastmarkets Battery Cost Index, which tracks the cost structure of various cells on the market, including those produced by CATL, BYD, LG, and SDI.

The post Electric vehicle economics: How lithium-ion cell costs impact EV prices appeared first on Fastmarkets.

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