The stakes are high; the policies the candidates are touting present vastly different strategies for managing the nation’s economy. The repercussions for the steel industry are enormous — environmental regulation, taxation, trade relationships and more are all on the table.
Here’s what people in the US steel industry were saying while votes were being cast and tallied:
“Seems like the steel mills have given us a little ‘Trump bump’ in anticipation of election results. I have heard from a lot of sources that if the results of the election go [Republican] that we could see as much as a $100-per-short-ton increase immediately. While I am not sure that we will see the impacts of election results that quick, I do think you will see the buyer sentiment become more bullish just due to the fact that majority of our industry leans one way.” — a southern distributor
“I read that Trump made some wild comments… suggesting to replace income tax and tariffs. Sure, he cannot really do this, but, still, his push to add tariffs is strong and a huge difference from Harris. So the election matters a lot.” — a West Coast trader
“I think Trump will be better for business… I felt much safer when [Trump] was in office and rockets weren’t flying over Japan. Also, everyone forgets the Trump tax cuts do expire, and without some cutting of social spending, those will need to go away. Corporate tax would go up also, and everyone forgets we all own corporations here. So that 20% of our 401ks that we all enjoy will go away. I don’t think [Harris] is a strong leader, and countries and people will take advantage of that — and are hoping she gets in — because, if not, their gravy train on Easy Street will end.” — a northeastern distributor
“I refuse to let this election stress or freak me out; yes, it is consequential, but there’s not much I can do other than vote my conscience… We are living pre-World War I and World War II right now… democracies versus autocracies, with the latter ramping up nuclear rhetoric left and right.” — a southeastern distributor
“Definitely [prefer] Trump — he brought us Section 232. Exclusion requests went up under Biden… now it looks like Swiss cheese.” — a flat steel producer
“I continue to be amazed at just how much buyers are sitting out right now; I would say last week seemed like the week between Christmas and New Year’s. There was absolutely nothing going on — felt like the pandemic again. The only ones buying are committed spot tons, so basically some of the tubers, and that would make sense that they are on the lower end of the spectrum, as nothing else is transacting right now. No doubt you could pick off some year-end buy opportunities right now, but, again, no one is willing to build or carry inventory, at least right now. Not seeing anyone expect any changes on contracts, pretty much right now just roll forward and debate the volume. I think there is some danger in the inventory based on today’s demand, I have plenty, but any uptick and I am short. So everything hinges on how buyers react coming out of this election — any sign of strength or restocking, and panic sets in. I think it would be crazy to think that we just continue down this path of no direction for the rest of the year.” — a midwestern distributor
“I don’t think the election will have some huge immediate transformative impact like some other people. It might improve sentiment, but actual on-the-ground sales will take time.” — a tubular goods producer
“I am praying to God Almighty that he spares our country for at least another four years and allows Trump to get elected. I think Trump would have a strong effect on the economy and the steel industry. Lower energy means lower costs for goods. Elimination of stupid regulations trying to cripple our country with EVs, solar, etc. The economy will start to thrive when people have more money in their pocketbook to spend.” — a northeastern distributor
“I have no predictions or expectations regarding the election. But the outcome will certainly have an impact on the steel market. I already see that hot-rolled futures are moving up… I’m really hoping that, regardless of the election outcome, the market will see a healthy rally. We could really use it this year.” — a southwestern distributor
“I pray it’s Trump. The economy should react favorably and take steel product demand in the same direction. Growing up ‘in a middle class home’ is not sufficient qualification to lead our nation out of the deep ditch in which we find ourselves. Fingers and toes crossed.” — a midwestern trader
“Can only imagine the steel business will be better if Trump wins. Personally, I’d prefer him to be commander-in-chief, but the earth will keep spinning regardless.” — a northeastern distributor
The post Election 2024: What US steel market participants are saying appeared first on Fastmarkets.
