Abbreviated pundit round-up: LCV wrong to endorse Clinton; reminding us the war on ISIS is illegal

At The Washington Post, Larry Summers writes—Preparing for the next recession:

A number of considerations make me doubt the U.S. economy’s capacity to absorb significant increases in real rates over the next few years. [...]

The fact that central banks in Europe, Sweden, Israel and a number of other countries where rates had been zero found themselves reversing course after raising rates adds to the cause for concern. 

But there is a more profound worry. U.S. and international experience suggests that once a recovery is mature, the odds that it will end within two years are about half and that it will end in less than three years are over two-thirds. Because normal growth is now below 2 percent rather than near 3 percent, as has been the case historically, the risk may even be greater now. While the risk of recession may seem remote given recent growth, it bears emphasizing that since World War II, no postwar recession has been predicted a year in advance by the Fed, the White House or the consensus forecast.

Historical experience suggests that when recession comes it is necessary to cut interest rates by more than 300 basis points. I agree with the market that the Fed likely will not be able to raise rates by 100 basis points a year without threatening to undermine the recovery. But even if this were possible, the chances are very high that recession will come before there is room to cut rates by enough to offset it. The knowledge that this is the case must surely reduce confidence and inhibit demand.

At The Guardian, Trevor Timm writes—Obama's speech reminded Americans that the war with Isis is still illegal:

The theory that the ongoing military action against Isis is illegal – no matter what you think the merits of fighting the terrorist organization are – isn’t just my opinion: it’s the opinion of legal scholars across the political spectrum. Even the former head of the Office of Legal Counsel under the Bush administration Jack Goldsmith has questioned Obama’s unprecedented claims to executive authority. Yet in the past year, the illegality of the military strikes in Syria and Iraq has been routinely ignored by almost all members of Congress, save a select few.

What the president said in his speech Sunday is nothing new: he has been half-heartedly calling on Congress to authorize the war since January. But the White House has put forth no language of their own for a bill that would satisfy their requirements, and the administration has made clear they don’t think they really need legislation anyways. Their position is, essentially: legal authority would be nice, but we can just pretend we already have it.