US scrap trends outlook: July 2024

What is the outlook for the US scrap market?

• The US scrap trend indicator for July is bearish with a score of 41.7
• The consensus was at 61%, highlighting a strong level of agreement amongst those surveyed
• Buyers were most pessimistic with a score of 34.4, while sellers were most optimistic with 53.2
• Inventory levels were at 45.3, indicating slightly lower-than-average stock levels

US scrap market participants agree on bearish sentiment

In July 2024, scrap market participants expect significant downward pressure on scrap prices due to lower demand, as indicated by a trend indicator of 41.7. This reading suggests a bearish sentiment in the market, falling below the neutral level of 50. This translates to an expected scrap price change for July of -3.8% month-over-month, pointing to another month of price decline.

The trend indicator consensus was remarkably high at 61%, highlighting a high agreement among surveyed participants about the declining market conditions.

Scrap buyers are the most pessimistic, while scrap sellers are the most optimistic

The sentiment across different market sides varied, with buyers showing the most pessimistic outlook at a trend indicator of 34.4, followed by brokers at 37.5. Sellers, on the other hand, exhibited a relatively more optimistic view, with a trend indicator of 53.2.

This is a change from last month’s outlook, where market participants across the board were aligned on their outlook.

Lower demand pressures scrap prices down in July

On average, inventory levels stood at 45.3, indicating slightly lower-than-average stock levels. Nonetheless, the driving factor for the expected downward pressure, according to those surveyed, is the general lower demand.

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