Memory manufacturer Kioxia reveals its entire NAND flash production volume for 2026 is already 'sold out'

For anyone hoping against hope that the memory supply crisis just might start to stabilise in 2026, I've got bad news: An executive at Kioxia, a memory manufacturer based in Japan, recently admitted that the company's production volume for the year is already sold out.

The managing director of Kioxia's memory business unit, Shunsuke Nakato, made the admission during an interview with Korean news outlet Digital Daily, elaborating that the ever-hungry AI industry's demand for memory has led to a challenging supply and demand situation. Nakato went on to say that, as many companies are continuing to invest in AI out of a fear of being left behind, the situation is likely to continue into 2027 at least.

Though memory supplies are limited, Kioxia is apparently deploying something of a 'gentleman's agreement' with its clients, remaining committed to existing contracts rather than adopting a 'first-come, first-served' or 'everything to the highest bidder' approach. However, Nakato also admits that even long-term Kioxia customers are having to contend with as much as a 30% year-on-year price increase.

Also interesting to note from this interview is Nakato's scepticism about QLC tech. For context, SK Hynix unveiled a 'world first' 321-layer QLC flash memory chip last year, while Micron revealed it wasn't completely abandoning the consumer arena by announcing its PCIe 5.0 QLC drive, the Micron 3610 NVMe SSD. Nakato highlighted concerns about the tech's lifespan and performance, before arguing that eighth-generation NAND flash would still be preferable as it overcomes those issues at a structural level.

Otherwise, Nakata's comments regarding the memory supply crisis are 'so far, so familiar,'—though some industry observers have suggested there'll be no end in sight through 2028 and beyond.

Still, it may not be all doom and gloom. For one, Nakato was keen to highlight the suite of new products Kioxia intends to release throughout 2026. For another, the interview also highlighted Kioxia's high production capacity and its plans to ease the supply situation by improving the operational efficiency of its Yokkaichi and Kitakami factories.

The Yokkaichi plant is already one of the largest flash memory production facilities in the world, but a second chip fab will also enter full-scale production later this year at the Kitakami site. That said, this is unlikely to appreciably ease the supply situation in the short term—for instance, even though the second largest memory maker SK Hynix has significantly moved up a number of its chip foundry plans, we're still unlikely to see an appreciable improvement in memory supply for some time yet.