2024 was the year when Neuralink, Elon Musk's brain chip company, finally moved from theory into reality, announcing its first successful medical implants in patients. This on its own is a remarkable achievement and not one to be taken lightly though, with Musk in his cheerleading role, the promises of what comes next may make a few of us non-augmented folk roll their eyes.
The promise-happy billionaire has not only declared that Neuralink is going to be full steam ahead, but that patients will be outperforming pro gamers within two years: And that's not even his wildest claim. Musk reckons Neuralink is going to have to speed up human brains so that AI doesn't get "bored."
Musk says our "low data rate" is too slow, you see, and this is a barrier to positive human-AI convergence. "Our slow output rate would diminish the link between humans and computers," says Musk, adding a helpful comparison to plants: "Let's say you look at this plant or whatever, and hey, I’d really like to make that plant happy, but it’s not saying a lot."
To be clear: The human brain is a computer that no Silicon Valley firm is even close to outperforming. But that's not going to stop our boy, who reckons Neuralink can increase our brain's output rate (how fast our brain is sending signals to the chip) by "three, maybe six, maybe more orders of magnitude."
Some of these scenarios sound like hell. "Let's say you can upload your memories, so you wouldn't lose memories," says Musk, adding that this would fundamentally change the experience of being human: "yeah we would be something different. Some sort of futuristic cyborg… it's not super far away, but 10-15 years, that kind of thing."
The above was Musk in August this year, but it's a drum he keeps beating. A recent tweet by tech investor Apoorv Agrawal called Neuralink the "most important company of the decade", an assertion Musk leaped upon to make further claims:
"Bit rate and patient number will increase hyperexponentially over the next 5+ years. My guess is combined I/O bit rate >1Mbs and augmented humans >1M by 2030."
So over a million augmented humans in five years' time. But even that prediction looks positively tame next to Musk's previous notion that hundreds of millions will have Neuralinks within "the next couple of decades." Add to which Musk’s comments about the Input/Output rate of over one million bits per second, basically the speed of thought, and we are leaving "normal" brain function far behind for something that we don't really have a name for yet. Master?
I jest of course, and we'll get to why Neuralink is unquestionably A Good Thing and will almost certainly improve the quality of life for some individuals (it has already done this on a small scale). But there's a real distinction between the reality of Neuralink and the medical goals versus Musk's rhetoric, which essentially starts at predicting millions of people having the devices implanted and ends up with creating a race of supermen.
Some would call this visionary, the very reason that much is such a heralded individual for some. Others might point out just how far this thing is from non-medical applications as it stands, and the speed of that five year timeframe for getting a million people chipped.
To be clear: I'm not pretending to have any special knowledge of this. But what is abundantly clear is that, if Musk's wilder claims are even approximately close to reality, this would mark a social-technological revolution the likes of which we've never seen, and overnight create a two-tier species where a small percentage of the population is thinking six times faster than the rest. That seems a long way from a utopian prospect, and something that at the very least requires the kind of ethical and regulatory scrutiny that Musk recoils from (indeed, the SEC is sniffing around and not before time).
The thing is, of course, this feels unlikely to come to pass on Musk's timeframe. It is well to remember that, as well as the man's many outstanding achievements, there are a whole lot of unfulfilled promises, many of which are nowhere near as pie-in-the-sky as brain chips in hundreds of millions of people. Remember the network of one-car tubes?
Musk has been promising that Tesla will have self-driving cars "next year" since 2014: Next year has yet to arrive. In 2019 he said there would be a million Tesla robo-taxis on the road by 2020: In 2024, they're still not here. As Covid-19 was declared a pandemic by the WHO, Musk declared there was nothing to worry about and predicted no new cases in the US: Tens of thousands would die.
There's the Tesla bots, which he reckons will soon be bigger business for the company than its cars, except… when they were rolled out to do some bartending, it turned out that us fleshbags were still in control. And then perhaps my favourite claim of all: Musk says we won't just get to Mars by 2050, but on that date there will be a million people on the red planet.
Neuralink itself has been the subject of other claims. The first trial was supposed to start four years before it did, and some of Musk's wilder claims about the technology include that it will somehow be able to "cure" autism and schizophrenia, which are not diseases, as well as give you super-sharp "eagle eyes."
In this context it's hard to parse the visionary, which Musk undoubtedly is in some ways, from the vaudeville hype-man. It is undeniable that advances are being made in brain-computer interfaces, and not just by Neuralink, that would have been unimaginable even a decade ago: And that we live in an age of breakneck technological progress such that no one has any real idea what things will look like in 2030, never mind 2050.
What can and should be acknowledged is that Neuralink has successfully implanted devices in human patients, and those patients are able to interface with computers in a way that would have previously been impossible. Neuralink's first patient, Noland Arbaugh, likened the device to using the Force (as in Star Wars) and can now control a computer, play videogames, and talk to friends without any physical input.
This is the tech story that has the biggest chance of either changing the world, or sputtering down all sorts of half-realised alleyways. Because it is a story about the human race, our capabilities and evolution and what might be next, as much as it is about silicon. If we live in a world with a million Neuralink-enabled humans, is that going to amplify the empathetic and social side of humans: Or one of the many others?
Neuralink is one part of what could be the biggest shift in human society since the Industrial Revolution. "We're not just aiming to give people the communication data rate equivalent to normal humans," says Musk. "We're aiming to give people who [are] quadriplegic, or maybe have complete loss of the connection to the brain and body, a communication data rate that exceeds normal humans. While we're in there, why not? Let's give people superpowers."
Elon Musk is a busy man. Aside from Neuralink there's the AI wars, in which he's currently embroiled in a huge legal spat with OpenAI, as well as SpaceX, Starlink, the Tesla bots and cabs, and of course his obsession with trolling on X. This is the technology that has the potential to truly reshape things. Whether it does remains to be seen: But I'm making a note to check back in five years, and see whether a million of us really are rocking brain chips.
