The Weight of the Polls

In the last week, the Quinnipiac Poll has Hillary Clinton up 10 points. The next day, the USC/LA Times poll has Hillary Clinton tied. That's a drop of 10 points in one day, so the race must be tightening, right?

I'll come back to those polls in a second... but first a related story. It's morning and time for me to weigh in... literally. I climb on the scale in my home bathroom, and for the sake of argument, let's say I weigh in at 205 pounds. I quickly realize that maybe the pizza this weekend wasn't such a great idea, so I go to the gym and work out hard... cardio and weight training. When I get done, I jump on the scale at the gym, and am thrilled to see I now weigh 199 pounds. Clearly, all my hard work paid off. I get dressed and head to the airport--I'm flying from Washington, DC to San Francisco for a business trip. When I check in, I find a scale in the hotel room, and when I weigh myself, I'm now at 203 pounds.

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