The Nuclear Deal is a Chance to Change Iran's Behavior
Sima Shine
Security, Middle East
Washington has tools for influencing Tehran’s most anti-Western faction—before the clock runs out.
The anniversary of the nuclear agreement was just another day on the calendar, because no one believed that Iran would violate the agreement even before it had enjoyed the considerable benefits that agreement confers on Iran.
The key question facing Western decisionmakers and the American administration is how to make sure that the years gained by the nuclear agreement, assuming that Iran does not violate it, will be utilized to bring about a substantial change in Iran’s policy—in the regional theater, in its support for terrorism, and in its treatment of its citizens—and restore it to a place of honor among the nations of the world.
There is no doubt that the Iranian regime’s supreme goal has been, and remains, its survival and the preservation of the revolution. In this, incidentally, it does not differ from other regimes. Therefore, when the economic pressure generated by the sanctions and concern about their escalation became concrete, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei realized that push had come to shove, and he approved the opening of secret talks with the United States in Oman. Some important conclusions can be drawn from this development: The ultimate decision maker was and remains the supreme leader. He is strong enough to force acceptance of an agreement that had many opponents. And, what is particularly important, he is rational, and weighs costs against benefits.
Today, after the implementation of the nuclear agreement and the removal of sanctions, the political struggle in Iran between the main power groups is also focusing on questions involving the continuation of the revolution and the survival of the system, together with the struggle for positions of economic power as a means of perpetuating rule. The Rouhani faction is striving to prove to the public that Rouhani’s campaign promise—that the centrifuges will continue rotating, and the sanctions will be removed—has been kept. This faction therefore wishes to open up the Iranian economy to foreign investment and to take other measures to ease the public’s economic plight.
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