National Bank makes decision on base rate

Tengrinews.kz – On Friday, March 6, the National Bank of Kazakhstan announced its decision on the base rate. It has been kept at 18 percent per annum with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point.
According to the National Bank, the decision was based on the results of the forecast round, updated estimates of key macroeconomic indicators, and the balance of inflation risks.
According to the regulator, annual inflation in February 2026 slowed to 11.7 percent (12.2 percent in January), in line with forecasts. All components of inflation are showing a slowdown.

"Disinflation is supported by moderately tight monetary conditions, strengthening of the tenge exchange rate, slowing unsecured consumer lending, and reduction of excess liquidity through the gradual increase of minimum reserve requirements, mirroring operations, as well as the implementation of a set of anti-inflationary measures by the government and the National Bank. In particular, a significant contribution to reducing inflation has been made by the moratorium on price increases for housing and utility services and fuel and lubricants. The impact of the VAT increase on inflation is assessed as limited," the statement said.

What the base rate is
The base rate is the main instrument of the National Bank’s monetary policy. It shows the interest rate at which banks can borrow money and largely determines the rates on loans and deposits for the population and businesses.
According to the National Bank, changes in the rate do not immediately affect inflation, but usually begin to have a noticeable impact after about 12–18 months. In the short term, the effect of rate changes is weaker.
Earlier, the National Bank shared its plans regarding the base rate. According to the regulator, it intends to maintain the current monetary conditions, including the base rate, until the end of the first half of 2026.
How the base rate has changed
Kazakhstan began 2025 with a base rate of 15.25 percent.
On March 7, the National Bank raised the base rate to 16.5 percent, explaining the decision with updated forecasts for inflation and economic growth.
On October 10, the National Bank raised the base rate to 18 percent, where it remained until the end of the year.
On January 23, 2026, the regulator again kept the rate unchanged at 18 percent per annum with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point.
How the base rate works
Changes in the base rate affect inflation through money market interest rates and the exchange rate. When the base rate rises, money in the economy becomes "more expensive" — interest rates on loans and borrowings increase. As a result, both businesses and households tend to spend less and save more. Lower consumption slows price growth, thereby restraining inflation.
How the base rate affects the tenge
When the National Bank lowers the base rate, money becomes cheaper. In the short term, this usually leads to weakening of the tenge — participants in the foreign exchange market expect the exchange rate to decline and begin to play against the national currency. In the long term, however, lower rates may slow inflation, which could strengthen the tenge.
How often the rate is changed
Decisions on whether to raise or lower the base rate are made by the National Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. Its meetings are held eight times a year according to a pre-approved schedule.
The next decision on the base rate will be announced by the Monetary Policy Committee on April 24 at 12:00 Astana time.