Disease X: why a new pandemic is inevitable and whether Kazakhstan is ready - a scientist explains
A new pandemic is only a matter of time
Biologist and immunization consultant Assel Musabekova says forecasts about the emergence of Pathogen X in the coming years are scientifically grounded. According to her, it is only a matter of time.
“We know that a new pandemic is very likely to happen. Humanity has always evolved alongside infections, so they are inevitable,” the scientist says.
About the expert: Assel Musabekova holds a PhD in molecular biology and virology (University of Strasbourg, 2019) and works as a consultant on immunization and global health issues.
The term “Disease X” was first introduced in 2017. It refers to an unknown pathogen capable of causing the next pandemic and is used by the World Health Organization (WHO) to prepare for future biological threats.
In essence, COVID-19 became the first Disease X. Despite the term being introduced years earlier, humanity was not ready for the pandemic, Musabekova notes.
“After the crisis we experienced, we began talking more seriously about Disease X. That’s why it’s important for countries to unite efforts and prepare in advance for such threats,” she emphasizes.
At the same time, it is impossible to predict exactly when such a pathogen may emerge. According to the biologist, many factors currently contribute to the appearance of new infections.
Pathogen X or a ‘super mutant’ made from several viruses?
Media reports often suggest that several known viruses could merge into a single dangerous pathogen. However, the expert stresses that this scenario is impossible.
“Different viruses cannot combine and create some kind of super mutant,” Musabekova explains.
Typically, pandemics are caused by a single virus or bacterium that either mutates significantly or crosses over to humans from the environment — most often from animals.
She urges people to approach pandemic predictions calmly and rationally, as prevention is the key issue.
“We talk about this to take preventive action in advance, not because we’re waiting for or ‘planning’ a pandemic, as conspiracy theories often suggest. The goal is to be prepared,” she clarifies.
Infections circulating in Kazakhstan that pose potential risks
One of the main factors that can turn a pathogen into a pandemic is zoonotic transmission — diseases passed from animals to humans.
Besides COVID-19, such diseases include Ebola, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), West Nile encephalitis, and Rift Valley fever. Experts note that human activity often facilitates their spread.
Globally, zoonotic diseases cause about two million deaths annually, mostly in low- and middle-income countries. They also affect livestock, depriving farmers of income.
In Kazakhstan, Musabekova highlights several infections that pose potential risks:
brucellosis
anthrax
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever
tick-borne encephalitis
“Plague deserves special mention. About 40 percent of Kazakhstan’s territory is a natural reservoir for this disease. The country’s epidemiological service was originally built around anti-plague institutes,” the scientist says.
She believes the state must be prepared for the possibility that one of these infections could re-emerge, mutate, and cause a major outbreak.
Antibiotic resistance — the ‘silent pandemic’
Another major global threat comes from antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
Note: Antibiotic resistance refers to bacteria becoming resistant to antimicrobial drugs, making infections harder to treat and requiring higher doses or alternative medications that may be less effective or more toxic.
Musabekova says doctors are increasingly encountering cases where standard treatments no longer work — for example, pneumonia that does not respond to antibiotics.
“This is not a horror story or fiction — it’s already happening,” she stresses.
Even children, she adds, are now dying from infections that were once easily treatable.
Responsibility for the problem lies on multiple levels: weak government oversight, defensive medical practices where antibiotics are prescribed unnecessarily, and widespread self-medication.
“In Kazakhstan, people often prescribe antibiotics to themselves or their children without consulting a doctor, accelerating resistance,” she notes.
Agriculture also plays a major role. Around 75 percent of antibiotics are used in farming, often for preventive purposes rather than medical necessity.
Artificial risks and biosecurity concerns
A third group of risks involves the potential artificial origin of pathogens. This is less about conspiracy theories and more about real technological capabilities.
While COVID-19 is widely believed to have zoonotic origins, Musabekova says laboratory leaks or bioterrorist threats cannot be completely ruled out.
“Technologies like CRISPR make it relatively easy to insert DNA fragments into organisms and create new microorganisms. That’s why understanding these risks is essential,” she says.
This underscores the need for stronger legal frameworks, bioethics standards, and regulation in genetics and microbiology — areas where Kazakhstan is still developing oversight mechanisms.
The return of vaccine-preventable diseases
Musabekova believes the greatest internal risk for Kazakhstan lies not in unknown viruses, but in the return of familiar diseases that are preventable through vaccination.
“In 2024, Kazakhstan saw a major measles outbreak — more than 28,000 cases, many with complications,” she recalls.
Measles returns first because it is extremely contagious and requires 95 percent herd immunity, a level the country currently lacks. Other diseases such as whooping cough, polio, diphtheria, and mumps may follow.
“These infections will continue to return if vaccination coverage remains insufficient,” she warns.
Lessons from COVID-19: where the system failed
COVID-19 exposed vulnerabilities in Kazakhstan’s healthcare system, particularly in primary care and hospital triage.
“There were serious treatment errors, including widespread and unjustified use of dexamethasone and antibiotics,” Musabekova says.
She also points to unprepared hospitals, chaotic construction of temporary facilities, and corruption risks during emergency procurement.
“These issues become most visible in times of crisis,” she adds.
Musabekova emphasizes that responsibility does not lie with the state alone. Individuals can also reduce risks by avoiding unnecessary antibiotic use and staying informed about zoonotic threats in their region.
Earlier reports showed a renewed rise in measles cases across Kazakhstan in early 2026 — particularly among unvaccinated children. Doctors link this trend to declining vaccination rates.