Tengrinews.kz - The National Bank of Kazakhstan has presented a report on monetary policy, which updates its forecasts for economic growth, the base rate, and other indicators.
The forecasts were revised amid a decline in demand for oil on the external market and expectations of supply growth. Inflationary pressure on the domestic economy remains due to potential price increases on global food markets and rising inflation in Russia, the main trading partner. Rising production costs, caused by rising prices for manufactured goods and imported goods, will also increase price pressure on non-food products.
Economic growth
The National Bank forecasts GDP growth in 2024 at 4–4.5%. For 2025–2026, economic growth is expected to be in the range of 4.5–5.6%. In 2027, growth will slow to 3.3–5.3%. The main drivers of growth will be domestic demand, although falling oil prices and slowing consumer lending may limit the dynamics.
Base rate
The National Bank forecasts the base rate at 12–14.75% in 2025 and 10–13.75% in 2026. The proposed base rate trajectory does not imply an obligation for the National Bank to maintain it at such levels.
Oil prices
Under the baseline scenario, the National Bank expects oil prices to stabilize at around $80.3 per barrel on average per year in 2024. In 2025-2026, the oil price will be $70 per barrel. This is due to lower demand from China and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, lower global economic growth in 2025, and an increase in oil supply due to the lifting of OPEC+ restrictions and increased production in North and South America.
Imports and exports
Imports of goods will continue to grow, increasing from 60.4 billion in 2023 to 62.3 billion by 2026. Exports will increase moderately, from 80.2 billion in 2023 to 81 billion in 2026. The main contribution to exports will be provided by oil production due to the expansion of production at the Tengiz field, as well as high prices for metals. The growth of non-oil exports will be restrained by measures to redirect some raw materials and some types of energy, such as gas and oil products, to the domestic market.
Inflation
In 2024, inflation, according to the National Bank's expectations, will be 8-9%. In 2025, it will decrease to 6.5-8.5%, in 2026 - to 5.5-7.5%, in 2027 - to 5%. Moderately tight monetary policy and a decrease in external inflationary pressure will contribute to a slowdown in price growth.
Earlier, the Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Timur Suleimenov answered the question of whether Kazakhstan will return the fixed dollar exchange rate.
