Will Homelander Die? ‘The Boys’ Death Betting Odds Include Surprising Picks
Since The Boys debuted in 2019, characters like Billy Butcher, Hughie Campbell, Frenchie, Mother's Milk, and Annie January (Starlight) have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at trying to kill the most powerful “supe” in the universe, Homelander. Will Season 5, the series conclusion, see “the boys” finally prevail, or will Homelander decimate his opposition once and for all?
Many heads will be on the chopping block as the final season progresses, as the adult superhero show no longer has a reason to save for the future. The core of “the boys” has mostly been protected by plot armor throughout the first four seasons. There haven’t been any major deaths among the main good guys. While the “supes,” who are posed as the show’s antagonists, have seen a lot more bloodshed, the most featured supes like Homelander and The Deep have made it to the end. All of this could change by the end of the series.
Episodes 1 and 2 of Season 5 were released Tuesday featuring one major death already.
One last go pic.twitter.com/HsXeebBTjE
— THE BOYS (@TheBoysTV) December 7, 2025
Big characters are going to die, so who will it be? Polymarket, an online betting platform, has listed the percentage likelihood for each character to die.
Here’s the list from highest chance of dying to lowest as of April 9, 2026:
- Billy Butcher — 85%
- Kimiko — 77%
- Homelander — 75%
- The Deep — 74%
- Mother’s Milk — 63%
- Frenchie — 62%
- Soldier Boy — 53%
- Annie January (Starlight) — 20%
- Ryan Butcher — 19%
- Hughie — 18%
The biggest surprise personally is that Homelander is not 100% to die. If they actually ended this series with Homelander still alive, it would diminish the legacy of The Boys. It’s been the whole point of the entire five seasons. Homelander has to go. Even at 75%, I’d feel amazing about those odds.
Billy Butcher is almost as certain to be permanently put down by the time it’s all said and done, but there is a sliver of a possibility that he gets a happy ending with Ryan.
I would put Frenchie very high on my list of probability to go. He would be far higher than Mother’s Milk, who I believe is one of the less likely to go. With MM’s daughter, he has much more to live for. Frenchie has been dealing with the guilt from the sins of his past for a long time. He is a character who feels ready to go. Kimiko feels like a true 50/50, but a happy ending feels more likely than not. Seventy-seven percent feels high, considering up to this point she has been impossible to kill.
Polymarket clearly believes that Annie and Hughie will have a happy ending, with neither being over a 20% chance to die. While I agree with that prediction, I don’t think it is that certain.
The show will release weekly until the season finale on May 20th. In just over a month, we will know who survives the final face-off between Homelander and “the boys”.