Trump's GOP stranglehold faces 'most consequential test' yet: expert

A prominent political analyst warned Wednesday that President Donald Trump's stranglehold on the Republican Party is about to face one of its most consequential tests, and the outcome could ripple across his entire second term.

Writing in the Washington Post, Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, argued that Trump's decision to endorse primary challengers against five Indiana state senators who defied him could either cement his dominance over the GOP or crack it open ahead of a brutal midterm cycle.

"If Trump knocks off most of his targets, Republican officeholders across the country will see that they oppose the president at their peril. But they’ll note the opposite if he fails. That doesn’t mean that Republicans are going to suddenly rise in revolt. But it does mean that more of them, in more situations, will be more comfortable distancing themselves from Trump or even opposing him outright," wrote Olsen.

The senators crossed Trump in December when they voted to kill his push for a mid-cycle congressional gerrymander designed to send two additional Republicans to Congress. But a majority of Republican senators joined all 10 Democrats to hand Trump a humiliating defeat in a chamber his party dominates 40-10.

Trump responded by endorsing primary challengers against five of the defectors, with outside groups spending millions on attack ads. The primaries are May 5.

Olsen warned that the gambit is far from a sure thing. The incumbents have money, deep local ties and unimpeachable conservative records. None can credibly be dismissed as RINOs, an acronym for Republican in name only.

"This is a pure power play," Olsen wrote, noting that Trump has already seen his endorsed candidates struggle in Texas primaries.

The stakes, Olsen argued, couldn't be higher. If Trump loses in Indiana, Republicans across the country will quietly begin doing the math, and some will decide the emperor has no clothes.