'Strongest El Niño in 140 Years' Could Supercharge Global Weather This Year
The buzz about a potential El Niño in the latter half of 2026, and into 2027, is turning into an angry hornet’s nest humming wildly and loudly.
At first, it was armchair meteorologists, sounding the alarm and throwing out claims of a potential “Godzilla El Niño” incoming later this year. Then, officials at NOAA made their official predication a 62% chance of El Niño forming in 2026.
Now, the European models are joining the chorus, with some prophesizing, not only that an El Niño season will emerge, but that it will be of the “super” variety.
Real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years. https://t.co/aT9IdIg4Fn
— Paul Roundy (@PaulRoundy1) April 5, 2026
After looking at the data produced by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the predicted spikes in ocean temperature over the coming months, atmospheric science professor Dr. Paul Roundy of the University of Albany tweeted:
“Real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years.”
So, what does that mean? Colin McCarthy at US Stormwatch provided a little context:
“A Super El Niño is informally defined as when temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region in the tropical Pacific exceed 2°C above normal.
“El Niños historically have led to some of the warmest years on record, including 2024, and this will be no different. Combined with the ongoing trend of global warming, 2026 and 2027 will likely rank among the two warmest years ever recorded in Earth’s modern history.
“Super El Niños also supercharge extreme weather events around the world, including floods and droughts. In general, expect significant major climate impacts in the next 1.5 years globally.
“They also bring significantly increased odds of a below-average hurricane season in the Atlantic and a much above-normal season in the eastern Pacific.”
In terms of surfing, El Niño typically entails enhanced swells due to greater storm activity. For more on what that looks like, specifically for surfers in the United States, see below for a little refresher from a previous article here on SURFER:
Summer
West Coast: More hurricane swells. Fewer southern hemis. Warmer local waters. (Find a spot that likes shorter interval south swells.)
East Coast: Fewer hurricanes. (Resist the SUP. Consider a trip to Baja.)
Hawaii: Fewer southern hemis. (Find a spot that likes wind swell.)
Winter
Pacific Northwest: Lots of swell, less wind and rain. (Get it while it lasts.)
California: Warmer water and more swell, but also more wind and rain. (Find a spot that likes south winds.)
East Coast: No significant surf impact.
Hawaii: Lots of swell, wind and rain. (Find a spot that’s well protected.)
Batten down the hatches; we could be in for a big one.