Why America's energy independence can't shield the economy from Iran war disruptions

• President Donald Trump has touted America's energy independence.
• US oil production has indeed set records in recent years.
• But "energy independence" isn't straightforward, and it doesn't mean the US is shielded from oil shocks.

When US President Donald Trump addressed the nation on April 1, he said the US is not reliant on oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

It was a nod to an idea he's touted before—energy independence—but the reality is complicated. It does not, for instance, mean the US is shielded from the energy disruptions caused by the Iran war, even as America pumps record amounts of crude.

Nearly every oil-producing region of the US saw an increase in output in 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration. The US grew output by 325,000 barrels last year, pushing production to 13.6 million barrels a day.

Yet the oil market is complex, and crude oil is priced and traded globally. That means the idea that the US isn't impacted by turmoil elsewhere in the oil market isn't accurate, Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy from JPMorgan Private Bank, said.

"The notion that the US is insulated from market consequences of the Strait of Hormuz being closed is mostly false," he said. "While US natural gas prices have actually declined this year, most other hydrocarbon-related fuels and refined product prices have increased materially."

Cembalest said that even though the US is a leading US oil exporter and producer, its price increases for fuel and other energy products have been on par with the rest of the world. In fact, prices for commodities such as oil, gasoline, and other petrochemicals are increasing faster in the US.

As these are all priced in global markets, a disruption like the Strait of Hormuz being closed by Iran means that when global oil prices spike, they rise in the US, despite claims of energy independence.

The global nature of supply chains is also a factor. When a key oil chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz is closed, commodities like fertilizer are affected, which pushes up global food costs. Analysts from TS Lombard have raised similar concerns regarding war-driven supply chain chaos.

Cembalest said the bottom line is that energy independence is not the "economic firewall" some may think, and the economics of disruption favor Iran to a degree.

"Iran proposes to charge 100 - 130 vessels per day $2 mm each, which would amount to $70 - $90 bn per year in revenues," Cembalest noted. "Even if Iran only charged $2 mm each to the 2,000 to 3,000 commercial vessels currently stranded in the Gulf, Iran would raise $4- $6 billion dollars which matches or exceeds recent annual toll revenues for the major canals."

Other finance pros, such as Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Jitania Kandhari, have speculated that the Iran war could prompt other countries to pursue energy independence.

But as Cembalest highlighted in the note, for the US, energy independence is considerably more complicated than Trump has made it seem. The US has already tried to pull several levers to control the impact of higher oil prices, such as releasing reserves and waiving shipping laws to lower costs.

The effects have been muted, and gas prices continue to climb above $4 a gallon, with JPMorgan saying this week that $5 a gallon is in sight if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.