Bezel CEO Quaid Walker Brings Prediction Markets to Luxury Watches

Like many others with time on their hands and disposable income during the pandemic, Quaid Walker, a Google designer turned entrepreneur, tried to break into watch collecting. He quickly ran into a familiar problem: wait lists. After repeated attempts to purchase coveted luxury timepieces, Walker found himself shut out. That frustration became the impetus for Bezel, a secondhand luxury watch marketplace that now features $950 million worth of listings.

Bezel doesn’t just facilitate transactions; it also compiles troves of marketplace data, including exclusive bids, offers and sales figures. The company uses that information internally to help buyers gauge whether a price is fair. Now, it’s putting that data to work in a new way through a partnership with prediction market Kalshi. The deal, announced today (March 3), combines the financialization of collectibles with the expanding reach of prediction markets.

“We have the underlying data. They’re interested in collectibles,” Walker, CEO of Bezel, told Observer. “So, that kind of kicked off the conversation.”

Founded in 2022, Bezel has attracted a measure of star power. In 2023, it raised $8 million in  a seed round backed by celebrities including Kevin Hart, John Legend and Steve Aoki. Its inventory spans a wide range, from $750 models to timepieces priced north of $1 million.  The platform aims to combine luxury touches, such as concierge appointments, with consumer-facing technology.

That blend of craft and digital innovation is familiar territory for Walker, who previously spent four years as a design lead for Google TV. Much of Bezel’s Los Angeles–based team comes from the tech world. The company’s focus on the intersection of luxury and technology ultimately drew it to Kalshi.

“We want to try interesting things and push the watch industry forward from a technology perspective,” said Walker. “From a long-term ethos perspective, Kalshi and prediction markets generally are becoming so pervasive in every industry that it’s fun for us to be the catalyst to bring it into the watch world.”

Under the partnership, Kalshi will introduce two types on markets tied to watches: qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative markets will allow users to trade on yes-or-no outcomes, such as whether a luxury brand will discontinue a popular model. Quantitative markets will focus on pricing, letting users trade on whether the secondary-market performance of brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe rises or falls over a set period.

It’s the latest win for Kalshi, a CTFC-regulated prediction market launched in 2018 that lets users trade contracts on outcomes ranging from politics to sports. In recent months, Kashi has expanded into collectibles. Last fall, it partnered with digital marketplace StockX to offer trading contracts tied to product outcomes for sneakers, apparel and even Labubus.

According to Walker, bringing collectibles to prediction platforms lowers the barrier to entry. “If I’m obsessed with watches and I believe that Patek is going to release a new Nautilus this year, the only way I can speculatively involve myself in the market right now is to spend a hundred thousand plus dollars and buy a Nautilus,” he said. With Kalshi, by contrast, users can participate for as little as $1.

Walker also sees the partnership as a way to broaden understanding of fair market value and increase liquidity. “If we’re able to bring some financially-minded individuals into the watch space, it drives transaction volume, it drives liquidity, and it makes the market better for all collectors,” he said.

Not that the secondhand market lacks momentum. Pre-owned luxury watches generated $24 billion in 2023 and are projected to reach $45 billion by 2030, according to Grand View Research. This growth has been fueled in part by perception of timepieces as financial assets, a shift Walker said provides additional justification for purchases. “I believe in wearing them, and I believe in using them—but I’d be lying to you if I said I don’t sometimes purchase watches because I think it’ll perform better in the market,” he said.

Bezel’s goal is to empower all watch collectors, regardless of their interests. “If you come to the market financially, you should have all the tools you need to make the right decision,” said Walker. “If you come to the market because you love these things and you want to wear them on your wrist and you want to create a family heirloom and don’t care about the financial side, then you can leverage those tools to make sure you’re getting the right price.”

That financial awareness is particularly relevant amid recent volatility. Tariffs, surging gold prices and renewed interest in brands like Cartier have all influenced pricing. The industry is also gearing up for Watches and Wonders, the annual trade fair known for major brand announcements.

The rumor mill suggests that Rolex may discontinue the “Pepsi” variant of its GMT-Master II at this year’s event—a prediction Walker said has already driven hundreds of thousands of dollars in transaction volume as dealers snap up inventory. With Kalshi, everyday watch enthusiasts will be able to trade on that outcome as well, at a fraction of the cost.