Liverpool given strongest win probability of the weekend vs West Ham

Liverpool head into Saturday’s Premier League meeting with West Ham United knowing a win at Anfield could be decisive in the tightening race for Champions League qualification.

Arne Slot’s side currently sit on 45 points and are level with Chelsea while chasing Manchester United and Aston Villa above us, which means consistency is now as important as performance.

Despite a narrow and unconvincing display in the 1-0 victory at Nottingham Forest, outside backing is firmly on Liverpool’s side ahead of the weekend.

BBC Sport pundit Chris Sutton believes the result is more important than the aesthetics right now: “Liverpool were very unconvincing at Forest, but they did nick the win.”

The former striker also pushed back against the ongoing comparisons between the current head coach and his predecessor.

“Some of their fans are still whinging about Arne Slot and he is always being compared to Jurgen Klopp, but they are actually on a decent run of results and showing a bit of spirit too.”

Most importantly, Sutton expects the points to stay on Merseyside.

“They are right in the mix for the top four but now they need to keep winning – I expect them to do that on Saturday. Sutton’s prediction: 2-1”

Liverpool heavily favoured against West Ham

The confidence is not just opinion-based, because the Opta supercomputer has made Liverpool the most likely winners of any Premier League fixture this weekend.

Liverpool have been given a 71.3% chance of victory, compared to West Ham’s 12.3% win probability and a 16.4% chance of a draw.

Match probability	Percentage
Liverpool win	71.3%
Draw	16.4%
West Ham win	12.3%

The data also shows we have won back-to-back league matches 1-0, against Sunderland and Nottingham Forest, and could now secure three successive league wins without conceding for the first time since the Dutchman’s opening matches in charge last season.

There are complications, however, because Florian Wirtz will not be available after his injury setback, leaving us without one of our most creative players just as the fixtures intensify.

At the same time, Slot has continued to back Mo Salah publicly and our No.11 remains central to the attacking plan even during a quieter scoring spell.

Why this West Ham match matters

West Ham arrive in improved form under Nuno Espirito Santo, collecting 11 points from their last six matches, yet history suggests Anfield is still a difficult trip.

Interestingly, the Portuguese coach has lost more Premier League matches against Liverpool than any other opponent across his managerial career.

For Liverpool, the objective is straightforward.

We have already left ourselves work to do in the table, only six points separate Villa, Manchester United, Chelsea and ourselves, every home fixture now effectively becomes a must-win.

The Forest victory showed resilience rather than fluency, but at this stage of the season results carry greater weight, and both statistical models and external predictions suggest Saturday presents a significant opportunity to strengthen our position in the race for Europe.

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