WC/EC 2026 Location update #3

Poland is the Organising Country and will therefore remain my option A as long as the predicted weather and ice conditions stay reasonable.

 

However, the weather prediction models have been very volatile the last couple of days with ever-changing forecasts and are now showing some significant risk factors for large parts of Europe, including Poland, that have to be taken into account. Therefore, I and my trusted ice scouts and weather guys have started to look at various Plan B alternatives more closely. 

 

Poland – probability 50%

The main problem looks to be the perception that is predicted for next week. Worst case it comes as snow. Best case it doesn’t come at all, and currently the likely scenario is it comes as water. Problem is that WE JUST DONT KNOW and have to wait for more accurate predictions. 

 

We have several areas in Poland that are monitored. Currently some of the more likely ones include:

 

In random order 

• Lake Bukowo (Mid-Western coast)
  https://maps.app.goo.gl/sY4VYzouRFfAzz3h7

 

• Puck Bay, near Kuźnice (Central Part of Polish coast) https://maps.app.goo.gl/bPyDvk1KeLSURCTq6 

 

• Vistula Lagoon, Tolkmicko or Krynica Morska (Eastern coast)  https://maps.app.goo.gl/WQqMAoEfHMgZcG9NA 

 

Sweden – probability 40%

The likelihood of Sweden has gone up significantly. Especially Uppsala / Ekoln, where the ice is currently good, launching site ample and the weather forecast looks promising. Even really promising ( except maybe that some models predict weaker winds than other models)

https://maps.app.goo.gl/iCojAddC3GUczoAcA

 

Lake Hjälmaren also currently has very good ice. 

https://maps.app.goo.gl/xjWjAMT7zCqHWmAw5

 

All in all I must say Sweden seems to have very few risk factors based on what we know today. It’s not the Official Organizing country, but other than that it looks pretty good.

 

Estonia, Germany, Finland etc- probability 10% 

Not forgotten, we keep our eyes and ears open, but with the info I have today, these are not the most likely destinations even though we know Estonia has confirmed and checked areas that can be considered if all goes bad elsewhere. 

 

Bottom line:

This is the best I can give you with the unstable info of today. 

The only thing I can say with 100% certainty is that nothing is certain. 

The deadline for making the final call remains Friday this week at noon CET. We will do everything to call it earlier if possible. 

 

“Predicting is hard, and predicting the future is especially hard”

 

Our ambition is to publish the next Location report on Wednesday, no later than Midnight.

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