Who Is Trying to Make Money in Venezuela Right Now?

President Trump has made his intentions in Venezuela quite clear since his press conference announcing the capture of Nicolás Maduro: The U.S. intervened to “take over” the nation’s crumbling oil infrastructure to get the “riches” flowing. With this mandate, some traders in the private sector are taking a similar approach to the complex, volatile, and legally spurious situation — by trying to squeeze as much money out of there as fast as they can. Less than a week after Maduro’s ouster, here are the parties extracting wealth, crude or otherwise, from Venezuela.

International oil traders

There have been many questions about the immediate profitability of Venezuelan heavy crude given its difficulty to refine and the dilapidated nature of the nation’s oil infrastructure. But there are takers for this commodity, including the multinational oil-trading firm Trafigura Group based in Singapore. In an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday, Trafigura’s global head of oil, Ben Luckock, said his firm was preparing for talks with the U.S. government about how to purchase the previously sanctioned oil. “It’s the topic everyone’s discussing in the oil industry,” he said. “I think everyone is looking at what opportunities there may be in Venezuela.” He added that his firm would also be “well placed” to ship gasoline and diesel to help keep daily life moving in Venezuela.

In Switzerland, one of the world’s largest centers for commodities trading, firms are also considering how to tap into the Venezuelan market. But traders there expect a potentially yearslong timeline before making serious investments. For the most part, oil traders have a wait-and-see mind-set, according to energy-market expert Michelle Brouhard, who spoke with Global Trade Review.

Holders of previously worthless Venezuelan bonds

For years, some firms on Wall Street have been holding on to underwater bonds from Venezuela hoping a political shift, an economic rebound, or an end to oil sanctions could help them recoup some of their losses buying Venezuelan debt. Nearly overnight, these bets are paying off. The Wall Street Journal reports that investors like Fidelity and T. Rowe Price are now positioned to make back their money, as the value of these bonds bought on the cheap has risen substantially since Maduro’s capture.

Hans Humes, the CEO of Greylock Capital Management, told the paper that some investors “already see incredible opportunity in this country.” The Silicon Valley–based firm, which focuses on buying distressed assets abroad, “owns a range of Venezuelan government bonds,” per the Journal.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright

Wright is a government official, but his statements this week suggest good news for oil companies like Chevron, which remained in Venezuela after other companies departed during the nationalization period under Hugo Chávez and is now poised to profit from any oil-production boost.

At the annual Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference in Miami, Wright said onstage that the U.S. is looking for “infinitely” more production from Venezuela. “We are going to get that crude moving again,” he said. “And sell it. Just like we do in our businesses. We are going to market the crude coming out of Venezuela, first this backed-up stored oil and then, infinitely going forward, we will sell the production that comes out of Venezuela into the marketplace.”

The person who suspiciously made $436,000 on Polymarket

Five hours before Maduro’s capture early on Saturday morning, one trader with a brand-new account on the events-betting website Polymarket made a killing with a wager that Maduro would be ousted soon. Their $436,000 profit on a roughly $30,000 bet immediately raised suspicions that they could be someone close to the administration who had been tipped off to the covert action.

In a tough break for this person with either impeccable timing or inside information, Polymarket is now refusing to pay out any bets on this several-million-dollar market. Their claim is that the event contract — “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela” by a given date — was not fulfilled because the raid to capture Maduro, in which around 70 people were killed, “does not alone qualify” as an invasion.