Free Agent Profile: Nick Martinez, SP/RP
Nick Martinez
Position: SP/RP B/T: L/R
Age: 35 (8/05/1990)
2025 Traditional Stats: 11-14, 4.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 165.2 IP, 116 SO, 42 BB, 40G, 26G, 0 SV, 5 HLD, 0 BS
2025 Advanced Stats: 103 ERA+, 17.0% K%, 6.1% BB%, 3.97 xERA, 4.33 FIP, 4.54 xFIP, 2.1 fWAR, 2.3 bWAR
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Rundown
After pitching to a 3.31 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 359 innings from 2022 to 2024, Nick Martinez had one of his worst seasons at age 34. Outside of his changeup, the profile of Martinez’s pitches for the most part did not change significantly year over year, but one thing that sticks out from 2024 to 2025 is his drop in chase rate. In 2024, he was in the 95th percentile with a 33.9% chase rate. In 2025, he was in the 8th percentile with a 24.5% chase rate. His success from 2022-2024 was built on pitchers chasing out of the zone: 2022 he was in the 82nd percentile at 32.5% and 2023 he was in the 89th percentile at 33.1%. So why did batters stop chasing?
Part of that likely came from him throwing the ball in the zone significantly more in 2025. In 2025, he ran a 55.3% zone rate on his pitches. In 2024, that was at 51.4%, in 2023 it was at 46.2%, and in 2022 at 47.6%. In 2024, his changeup generated a 46.1% chase rate, and he threw it in the zone 41.5% of the time. In 2025, he increased that zone rate to 48.4% and its chase rate fell to 27.4%. He did throw the pitch slower at 78.5 MPH compared to 80.1 MPH the year before, leading to a change in IBV from 6.8 inches to 5 inches and a drop in spin rate from 2,105 to 2,010.
His cutter, meanwhile, kept roughly the same velocity and movement profile coming in at 89.1 MPH with 11.4 inches of iBV, -1.9 inches of horizontal break, and 2,364 RPM of spin. In 2024, he threw that pitch in the zone 60.5% of the time with a 29.7% chase rate compared to 2025 at a similar 60.9% zone rate but a drop to a 23.9% chase rate. This may be because he increased his four-seam fastball zone rate from 53.9% to 61.3%, making both pitches less effective despite profiling similarly to the previous season. The four-seam chase rate dropped from 31.7% to 23.2%. His “stuff” between these two pitches did not seem to change much over these two years, but the increase in zone rate of the four-seam fastball did seem to have an impact on that pitch and his cutter.
With his biggest asset from 2022 to 2024 being getting batters to chase out of the zone diminished, his results fell off a cliff in 2025. If he isn’t throwing out of the zone as much, batters are not chasing those pitches, and that led to more contact in the zone, going from 83.8% to 85.9%. Batters also went from a 4.8% barrel rate to a 6.4%, a 31.7% hard hit rate to a 35.6% hard hit rate, and an average EV of 85.8 MPH to 87.7%.
He did find more success results-wise as a reliever, posting a 2.61 ERA and 0.92 WHIP compared to a 4.72 ERA and 1.25 WHIP as a starter. Under the hood, things did not really change, though, when he moved full-time to the bullpen in September. He still ran a 24.7% chase rate and 23.8% whiff rate compared to a 24.4% chase rate and 19.4% whiff rate up to that point as a starter. His velocity did not tick up significantly either as a reliever and his movement profiles stayed largely the same.
Contract
MLB Trade Rumors predicts a two-year, $25 million deal for Martinez. This is in line with the two-year $22 million contract Adrian Houser signed with the Giants earlier in the offseason.
Recommendation: Stay Away From
Martinez could have made sense on a one-year contract to be a long reliever and swing man if the Mets had not claimed Cooper Criswell off waivers, but Criswell is younger, cheaper, and has better stuff overall. The Mets should be looking to improve the front end of their rotation, not add expensive depth in the back.
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