First-and-10: Bears have found winning formula

This week’s version of the Ben Johnson Effect: A year after the Bears were burned by the fickle finger of football fate with a Hail Mary loss to the Commanders that sent their season careening into unprecedented ignominy, they are just about even with the football gods.

The Bears earned their 22-16 overtime victory Saturday against the Packers by making plays, but the one play that set it up was a mathematical fluke. Onside kicks had worked only five times in 48 tries (10.4%) before Josh Blackwell recovered a muff by hands-team member Romeo Doubs with 1:59 left in the fourth quarter. That was the break the Bears needed — their only chance — and they got it.

It has been that kind of season under Johnson. The upset of the Packers was the Bears’ sixth fourth-quarterback comeback victory, and each has been sparked by a play that beat the odds:

• Blackwell’s block of Daniel Carlson’s 54-yard field-goal try as time expired to clinch a 25-24 victory against the Raiders. Only 2% of field-goal attempts have been blocked this season.

• Jayden Daniels’ unforced error with 3:07 left in the fourth quarter — a fumbled handoff to running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt that was recovered by Nahshon Wright — led to Jake Moody’s 38-yard field goal as time expired to give the Bears a 25-24 victory against the Commanders. It was Daniels’ first botched exchange in 1,325 snaps in the NFL.

• Bengals defensive backs Jordan Battle and Geno Stone missing what should have been a sure combo tackle of Colston Loveland to spring the rookie tight end for a 58-yard touchdown reception that gave the Bears a 47-42 victory against the Bengals.

• Jaxson Dart fumbling after a seven-yard gain to the Bears’ 21-yard line, with Wright recovering. The Giants had momentum with a 17-7 lead and were driving for a touchdown that would have given them a 17-point lead with less than five minutes left in the third quarter. Instead, Dart suffered a concussion and played only one more snap, and the Bears parlayed Jamie Gillan’s 26-yard punt into a touchdown drive that gave them a 24-20 victory.

• Devin Duvernay’s 56-yard kickoff return to the Vikings’ 40-yard line with 42 seconds left in the fourth quarter led to Cairo Santos’ 48-yard field goal for an improbable 19-17 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium. Only three of Duvernay’s previous 27 returns had gone longer than 29 yards.

It’s a series of fortuitous plays that has the Bears rightfully claiming ‘‘this team is special’’ and skeptics pegging them for a fall, due to stub their toe when the ball doesn’t bounce their way.

Therein lies the challenge for Johnson and the Bears the rest of this season and into 2026: They must prove this team is not just ‘‘special’’ but sustainable.

The 2001 Bears were special. The 2006 Bears were special. And the 2018 Bears were special. But those exciting seasons were one-offs. This team, which has persevered through injuries but also has benefitted from good fortune, has key elements of staying power: a head coach who can win the chess match, a quarterback who is at his best in tough situations and an upgraded offensive line that — knock on wood — has stayed intact.

The Bears aren’t foolproof, and this season has been a bit of a high-wire act. But they’re working with a net this time and have a chance to be better even if they fall. It’s better to be lucky and good.

2. No matter what happens this season or in the future, the Bears’ victory against the Packers will go down as arguably the greatest regular-season triumph in team history, rivaling YouTube highlights of the ‘‘Miracle in the Desert’’ against the Cardinals in 2006 and the 44-0 victory against the Cowboys in 1985.

3. Amid all the excitement about the Bears’ miraculous victory and their potential Super Bowl hopes, both belief and skepticism about Caleb Williams are legitimate.

Williams was an elite-level quarterback in the final two drives to turn a subpar performance into a convincing one. But had it not been for Blackwell’s recovery of the onside kick, he likely would have finished with a 70.0 passer rating (12-for-24, 151 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions) and another middling performance against the Bears’ biggest rival. Given the chance, he finished with a flourish and a 98.9 rating.

4. Williams and the Patriots’ Drake Maye are 11-4 this season but with contrasting accuracy: Maye leads the NFL with a 70.9% completion rate; Williams is 32nd at 57.8%. If they meet in the Super Bowl, it would be the largest differential in accuracy since the Broncos’ John Elway (53.6%) faced the 49ers’ Joe Montana (70.2%) in Super Bowl XXIV in 1990.

That’s an interesting comparison. Elway and Montana are Hall of Fame quarterbacks who, despite the disparity in accuracy, had a knack for coming through in the clutch.

5. Johnson’s friendship with Lions head coach Dan Campbell and rivalry with Packers head coach Matt LaFleur might be an interesting backdrop to the Bears’ Week 18 game against the Lions at Soldier Field.

If the Packers lose their final two games against the Ravens and Vikings and the Lions beat the Vikings on Sunday, the Packers’ playoff fate might be in Johnson’s hands. If the Bears beat the Lions, the Packers would make the playoffs; if the Bears lose to the Lions, the Lions would.

The Bears could be locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC, which would give Johnson the option of resting some starters against the Lions. Adding more intrigue to that scenario is that the Bears would face the survivor in a wild-card game the next weekend at Soldier Field.

6. Continuity Is King Department: The Bears’ starting offensive line played every snap Saturday for the 10th time in 15 games this season. Last season, the starting offensive line played every snap in seven of 17 games and lost 335 snaps to in-game injuries. This season, the Bears have lost only 32 snaps to in-game injuries.

The starting combination of Ozzy Trapilo, Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright has a streak of 309 consecutive snaps. The five are approaching the 352 consecutive snaps the line had with Theo Benedet at left tackle in Weeks 5-10. The Bears’ longest streak of offensive-line snaps during the Matt Eberflus era was 163.

7. Regardless of what the protocol is for announcing the result of a penalized play, there has to be a way to avoid teasing fans with, ‘‘The ruling on the field is a touchdown. However . . . ,’’ as referee Carl Cheffers did on the final play of the Steelers-Lions game Sunday at Ford Field.

‘‘The ruling is offensive pass interference on Detroit No. 14, which negates the touchdown,’’ would have spared long-tormented Lions fans the agony of thinking their team had won a critical game when it had lost. It’s just common sense.

8. It’s actually a good thing that Pro Bowl selections at cornerback aren’t based only on interceptions, Three of the four NFC cornerbacks have two or fewer (Quinyon Mitchell has none, Cooper DeJean two and Devon Witherspoon one).

But the Bears’ Nahshon Wright has more than numbers. Each of the nine takeaways he has been involved in this season has been impactful, if not game-turning — from the pick-six against the Vikings in the opener to the fumble recoveries against the Commanders, Giants and Eagles (beating the famed ‘‘Tush Push’’) to a forced fumble in the red zone Saturday against the Packers.

9. Josh McCown Ex-Bear of the Week: Seahawks tight end Eric Saubert — a former Bear, Falcon, Jaguar, Bronco, Cowboy, Texan and 49er from Hoffman Estates — caught the game-winning two-point conversion in overtime in a 38-37 victory against the Rams.

10. Bear-ometer — 12-5: at 49ers (L); vs. Lions (W).