Airline stocks fall as consumers pull back on travel spending
On Tuesday, investment banking company Jefferies downgraded its rankings on Delta, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Air Canada. That caused airline stocks to drop. American Airlines (NasdaqGS: AAL) finished the day down 2.4%, Delta (NYSE: DAL) dropped 2.7%, and Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) fell 5.9%. Even United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL), which remains the only U.S. airline Jefferies still considers a “buy,” is down 1.2%.
Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu wrote that “corporate and consumer sentiment [are expected] to remain soft on swelling macro uncertainty.” Indeed, the global business think tank the Conference Board recently announced the latest reading for its U.S. Consumer Expectations Index, which measures consumer expectations for business, income, and job prospects. It reached its lowest level in 12 years to 65.2 points amid Americans’ concerns over inflation and Trump’s tariffs. That’s well below the threshold of 80, which the organization says typically signals a recession ahead.
In the Conference Board’s report last week, senior economist Stephanie Guichard said “consumers’ optimism about future income . . . [has] largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.”
One of the ways that Americans seem to be addressing these fears is by pulling back on travel expenses. Over the month of February, Bank of America reported a reduction of 7.2% in users’ credit and debit card spending.
Airlines are not only seeing reductions in consumer travel. At a conference last month, United’s chief financial officer Mike Leskinen, said that government travel “has fallen off here post-inauguration,” in part due to mass government-worker layoffs by the Trump administration. With government air travel making up about 2% of United’s revenue, and travel from consultants and contractors making up another 2% to 3%, the airline has reportedly seen a sharp decline in revenue from these cuts.