Donald Trump's proposal to buy Greenland, as ludicrous as it sounds, isn't actually impossible.
The president-elect has at least three options for taking control of the world's largest island, if he's genuinely serious about the plan he first floated in 2019, according to a new analysis by Politico.
“There are tons of variations in terms of what is administered by the Interior Department,” said Alex Gray, the National Security Council chief of staff during the first Trump administration. “It’s not a one-size fits all and we have precedent for doing a lot of options.”
Trump could try to buy Greenland outright if the autonomous territory declares independence from Denmark, which many of its citizens already want to do, or he could try to make the island a U.S. commonwealth like Puerto Rico, and he could also attempt to reach an agreement giving the American military unrestricted access in exchange for defense and financial assistance, similar to deals with Micronesia and the Marshall Islands.
“I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that he could do a direct purchase,” Gray said.
Trump allies are seriously discussing the parameters of such a move, but Greenlanders may not want to give up their autonomy to become part of the U.S., and setting a value could be tricky due to the billions worth of unexplored minerals and hydrocarbons lying beneath the island's melting Arctic ice sheets.
“Denmark doesn’t claim to own it,” said Scott Anderson, a former State Department lawyer and national security expert. “I am quite confident that the government of Denmark, as we’ve seen them say things, doesn’t think it has the legal authority to sell Greenland to anyone.”
“If it’s not internationally recognized as valid and legitimate, then that’s going to cause all sorts of complications in actually benefiting from that relationship with Greenland,” Anderson added.
Trump refused to rule out military action to take control of Greenland, but that could risk an international crisis and possibly shatter the NATO alliance, but the U.S. could exert military control over the island in other ways – especially if the territory gains indepence from Denmark.
“Denmark understands that Greenland is going to get independence,” Gray said. “They understand they don’t have the ability to defend Greenland post independence.”
The U.S. could offer Compacts of Free Association, which would give its military exclusive access to the island and the right to decide which other nations could base troops there, to counter Chinese and Russian presences in the Arctic region as the Polar ice caps melt, or the Trump administration could place more U.S. military bases on the island.
“The Chinese are experts at exploiting these developing, lightly populated countries and using them for their own purposes,” Gray said. “[Denmark] understands that a Greenland that’s susceptible to coercion is not in their interest or our interest.”
