When Democrats lost the White House in November, and watched the Senate flip and the House remain in Republican control, they immediately set their sights on the next fight in 2028.
But some Democrats say that's a mistake.
The Democratic Party, they say, should be squarely focused on 2032 if they want to win not just in presidential elections but in down-ballot races across the board.
“For us to win the White House going forward and for us to win majorities in Congress, we have to start winning in places where we are losing,” said Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who ran Barack Obama's Florida operation during the 2008 presidential race.
“If we do nothing, which is what my party usually does, we're going to be in a bad spot,” Schale warned.
The reason is simple, Schale and other Democrats say: The 2030 census.
Take the “blue wall” states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. For years the wall has been a Democratic mainstay and safety net of presidential politics, often catapulting the winner of the states to the White House.
But because of population trends over the next six years, 2028 may be the last time Democrats can count on the states to help get them to 270 electoral votes.
During the 2032 election, the blue wall could get Democrats to between 255-260 electoral votes, Schale predicted, falling shy of the magic number.
That means Democrats are going to have to start playing in states where they haven't won in several cycles — Florida, for example — and winning the states they have won recently but drifted off this cycle, such as Georgia.
Schale pointed to the latest analysis by The American Redistricting Project, which reveals that blue states like California, New York and Illinois will lose congressional seats while states like Florida, Arizona and Texas will likely gain them.
The strategist said that even if a swing state like Nevada finds its way back to the Democratic column, the party will continue to fail.
Since the grueling loss in November, Democrats have sought to figure out where they went wrong and what they need to do to begin to win races again. A number of Democrats, drawing parallels to another dark time for their party, have said they need to go back to the 50-state strategy former Gov. Howard Dean put in place when he became chairman of the Democratic National Committee in 2005.
In an interview on Wednesday, Dean said the party has to start expanding the map and shouldn’t just rely on a handful of states.
In 2024, the Harris campaign focused on the “blue wall” coupled with states including Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
President-elect Donald Trump won all of them.
“This is the whole damn problem with the Democrats and it has to do with why we lost,” Dean said.
“‘Let’s just run in half the states,’” Dean said, echoing the strategy of recent cycles. “But even if you win, where does that get you?”
“The key to winning back the Senate and House is not in Washington. It's in the states,” he said, adding that Democrats can’t only work on their positioning on the issues.
The party needs to invest in party infrastructure and other organizations in states across the country: “I think we need to position ourselves carefully in front of voters.
“You can stand up for who you are and if they know who you are they will tolerate you,” he said.
Lawmakers say they agree with Dean.
In an interview Wednesday, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said that the party’s recent losses — comprised of the Republican shifts in the south and in the west — “show the necessity for a 50-state strategy.”
“We have to be focused obviously on Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but we also need to build in North Carolina, in Georgia, in Arizona and be prepared to have multiple paths of victory,” said Khanna, who is said to be considering a 2028 bid. “And I actually think that North Carolina and Georgia are trending our way but are going to require more and more work.”
But Democrats say the strategy shouldn’t just apply to presidential races. Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons said the potential realignment on the heels of the census could spell trouble for Democrats in races from state legislature seat to governor. He said Democrats have to work to win these races so they have a seat at the table when it comes to redistricting in the next decade.
“We have to do more or we’ll be consigned to not having competitive congressional majorities in the 2030s,” he said. “That’s how you grow your bench.”
