Russian Evacuation From Tartus Naval Base Appears Stalled

After the recent regime change in Syria, the Russian military has concentrated its trucks and heavy equipment at its naval base in Tartus for a likely evacuation - but so far, it has yet to send any of its auxiliary ships in to take on cargo. Recent satellite imagery shows that the piers at the base are empty, even though a military auxiliary ship is just offshore and evacuation flights are in full swing at nearby Hmeimim Airbase.

High resolution satellite images taken by Maxar and released on social media show at least 100 drab-green trucks of various sizes staged at the Tartus base on Monday, the fruits of a large-scale Russian pullback that has been under way for a month (video below). An air defense and surface search radar located near the Tartus harbor entrance has also been disassembled for return home. 

A Russian S-300/400 and Tor-M1 Surface-to-Air Missile Battery spotted earlier today near the City of Baniyas in the Tartus Governorate, heading South towards the Russian Naval Base in the Coastal City of Tartus. pic.twitter.com/oPJynenm75

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) December 6, 2024

Meanwhile, on Monday, a Ropucha-class amphib - often used by the Russian Navy for military logistics - was loitering just offshore, along with the freighter Sparta. 

The Sparta is a sanctioned Russian military cargo ship, and it made the long journey from the Baltic to Syria last month, arriving in early January. It was once a familiar sight on routes from Russia and Crimea to Syria: though it was blacklisted years ago by the U.S. Treasury for its role in supporting Russian involvement in the Syrian Civil War, it was always welcome in Tartus. As of Monday, it was in a holding pattern outside the port, being watched by a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft.  

The Sparta has now been sailing 5NM west of Tartus for over 28 hours without permission from the Syrian government to dock and pick up Russia equipment from the base as part of their evacuation. https://t.co/LrBH3NuNUV pic.twitter.com/QnGy75bpb7

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) January 6, 2025

The apparent loss of access to Tartus will have operational implications for the Russian Navy. Without a local base, the Mediterranean Sea Task Force may have difficulty sustaining submarine operations, and its last known sub - the Kilo-class Novorossiysk (B-61) - exited the Strait of Gibraltar on January 2, according to analyst H.I. Sutton. 

With Novorossiysk's departure, Russia no longer has any known attack subs in the Mediterranean. Given its resource constraints, Western sanctions, and the shortage of basing options, "it seems unlikely that Russia will be able to maintain regular submarine deployments there for the foreseeable future," Sutton assessed.