The New England Patriots made a business decision in Week 18. Drake Maye dropped back on third-and-long — his second passing play of the day against the Buffalo Bills. He got sacked behind a cheesecloth offensive line that left the franchise quarterback battered throughout his rookie season.
Understanding the risk of keeping Maye in the game went two ways. One was an injury for a player who’d been pressured a league-worst 40.8 percent of the time. The other was, well, winning Sunday’s game would be a net detriment for the Patriots. A loss would cement the top overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, a position from which New England could trade back and pick up the assets needed to jump-start a massive, wildly necessary overhaul.
So Maye went to the sideline. Rookie seventh round pick Joe Milton emerged in his place — a decision that let the Patriots better understand what the young, rocket-armed quarterback was capable of while enhancing the team’s chance of locking in the top overall pick.
There’s good news and bad news on that front for New England.
Joe Milton is balling in his debut! 48-yard TD pass to Boutte!
: #BUFvsNE on CBS/Paramount+
: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/u2W48Voqvr— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2025
Milton completed his first 11 NFL passes before a second quarter throw-away. He showcased his arm strength and the scrambling ability to extend plays — or lead them to the end zone.
A @Qbjayy7 keeper!!
: CBS pic.twitter.com/Kv1DIjhJp4
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 5, 2025
Milton’s first NFL appearance resulted in 241 passing yards on 29 attempts and a pair of touchdowns. That was enough to ruin the Pats’ draft chances; they beat Mitchell Trubisky and Mike White 23-16 to improve to 4-13 — and take themselves out of the running for a top three pick.
Let’s look at this through an optimistic lens. Is it possible the Patriots have stumbled into a good problem of having too much young quarterback talent? After all, Milton’s best play of the afternoon — the one absolutely dripping with star power — didn’t even count.
JOE MILTON HADOUKEN
(called back by a holding) pic.twitter.com/I6rktO2wLs
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 5, 2025
That’s the peak of Milton’s performance, a showcase of everything he can do. He’s a gifted scrambler who turns stupid decisions (like running 11 yards backward) into magic. He can whip an absolute laser 40 yards downfield while barely losing any altitude on his throw.
Four of Milton’s seven incompletions came on deep throws to one of the league’s worst receiving corps. He wasn’t sacked at all and was only hit three times in the pocket.
via habitatring.com
A lost fumble was the only black mark on his afternoon — and that was a botched handoff where blame could be assigned equally to quarterback and tailback.
Bills ball thanks to @solomon_40!
: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/slRqHb9S7t
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 5, 2025
What does this all tell us? Ultimately, a little bit more than a great preseason performance — something Milton also gave us back in August.
Joe Milton with the for the @patriots TD!
: #CARvsNE on @nflnetwork
: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/VtHbpnA0ri— NFL (@NFL) August 9, 2024
The Bills’ 19th-ranked passing defense rested most of its key players. Six starters, including Ed Oliver, Daquan Jones, Christian Benford and Greg Rousseau, weren’t even active. That left Milton to piece up a second level featuring players like Kaiir Elam, Edefuan Ulofoshio, Joe Andreessen and Cole Bishop.
That’s a step up from beating guys like Luiji Vilain, Dicaprio Bootle and Lamar Jackson (not that one) in his preseason debut, but still not great.
The other concern is Milton wasn’t especially consistent in college or, indeed, in his exhibition career as a pro. After sowing seeds of optimism in his first NFL appearance vs. Carolina, he completed only seven of his final 24 passes over the final two games of the 2024 preseason.
This tracks back to his Tennessee days. Milton’s disappearance against Florida in his third game of 2023 effectively set the ceiling for the Volunteers’ season. He crushed UConn and Vanderbilt and flailed against Texas A&M and Georgia. He played well against Alabama but led his offense to just seven points against Missouri.
There’s another fact to consider; the Patriots have gone through this before. Bailey Zappe relieved Mac Jones as a rookie fourth round pick in 2022. He won his first two starts and, through three games, completed nearly 73 percent of his passes with four touchdowns, one interception, 8.5 yards per attempt and a 111.5 passer rating.
This was not sustainable. Zappe was waived before the 2023 season, made it to the practice squad anyway and threw nine interceptions in his final eight games that fall. Neither he nor Jones made it to the 2024 active roster. Zappe served as the Cleveland Browns’ fourth-string quarterback this season and helped push his team past New England in the draft order with a horrendous performance in Week 18.
Maye and Milton are different than the Pats’ other young gun platoon. The former looks the part of a franchise quarterback capable of evading pass rushers and launching picture perfect throws downfield. The latter has a lower floor than Zappe and a significantly higher ceiling.
Expecting Milton to improve significantly is a tough ask. He’s nearly 25 years old after six years in college. He played at Michigan and Tennessee and failed to emerge as a consistent, trustworthy starter at either stop (though his final year with the Vols was certainly decent enough). Is guidance the issue after spending a long NCAA around some well respected coaching staffs?
Milton is a conundrum. From a raw talent standpoint he’s remarkable. He can almost effortlessly flick a football 60 yards downfield, run a 4.5-second 40-yard dash and broad jump 10 feet from a standstill. Turning that prodigious talent into something more isn’t impossible. Getting that kind of performance on a regular basis, however, may be.
But for one week, when the Patriots needed it the least, Milton shined. Now Maye gets to suffer for it if New England can’t maximize its reduced draft status next spring.
