(NEXSTAR) — Last year gave skywatchers multiple stunning sky shows, including the total solar eclipse, the return of the “devil comet,” and multiple nights colored by the northern lights.
If you missed seeing the auroras dancing, have no fear: 2025 may end up being another great year for them.
We're in the midst of Solar Cycle 25, an active, 11-year period for the sun as it flips its poles. All of the activity sparks solar storms, specifically solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which hurl plasma and magnetic material into space.
When that material collides with Earth's magnetic field, particles flow toward the North and South Poles and interact with the gases in our atmosphere. Those interactions create excess energy in the form of light bursts, which become visible to us as the northern lights.
When the cycle activity reaches its peak, known as solar maximum, there are more sunspots that can lead to more of the activity capable of sparking the northern lights on Earth. We've seen some of that recently.
In October, a massive X9 solar flare was detected. X-class flares are the strongest (there are three others: B-class, then C-class, and M-class). It prompted warnings of a G3 strong geomagnetic storm on Earth. Other solar activity brought the chance to see the northern lights around Thanksgiving and New Year's Eve. The latter prompted a "severe geomagnetic storm alert" from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center on New Year's Day.
The strength of this activity, known as geomagnetic storms, will impact how far south the northern lights can reach in the U.S. Geomagnetic storms are measured on a five-point scale. At G1, the northern lights are typically visible across Alaska, Canada, and the northern portions of the Lower 48. At G5, the northern lights can reach Florida and Texas.
One such storm in May 2024 even brought the aurora as far south as Hawaii.
Mark Miesch, a researcher with NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, previously told Nexstar that solar maximum can last for about two years or even more. As of June 2024, Miesch believed we were already in this timeframe, something he called "space weather's version of hurricane season."
Speaking with NPR, Lisa Upton, lead scientist at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado, said we are beginning the declining phase of Solar Cycle 25 — but this could last through the end of the decade.
More strong solar storms are still expected throughout 2025 and potentially even into 2026, giving us a greater chance of seeing the northern lights.
While the SWPC and scientists around the world do keep an eye on the sun and try to predict what activity, if any, will ultimately impact us, it can be difficult to tell exactly when CMEs will hit Earth. Once CMEs are within 1 million miles of our planet, it becomes easier, but the lead time drops to about 15 to 45 minutes.
If the current predictions are correct, and solar maximum activity continues for the coming months, at least some Americans will have the chance to see the northern lights again soon. As for whether they’ll reach Florida and Hawaii again, you’ll have to stay tuned.
