Going into Week 18 of the NFL season, you’ll no doubt here a ton about incentives different players have in their contracts and what they need in these final games to hit those bonuses. And in some cases, those may be helpful in determining how to bet certain player props. In the case of anytime touchdown bets, they aren’t very helpful at all.
For one, most of the incentives we know about are yardage milestones, which don’t guarantee any of those players score, even if their coaches and teammates are playing along to help get them the ball. And two, if we do know about any touchdown incentives, oddsmakers know about them too — they’ll likely be factored into the odds you’re offered.
Just look at Derrick Henry’s -230 touchdown odds on Saturday when FanDuel incorrectly thought he was closing in on a bonus (he had already hit the milestone prior to Week 18).
So, I won’t be focusing on contract bonuses like some others in this Week 18 edition of best anytime touchdown bets. I’m looking for players who aren’t expected to rest and who have favorable matchups and decent value. Let’s get into it.
Odds via BetMGM
