Four teams enter Week 18 with a chance at locking up the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Here is how each team can clinch the top spot
Game update: With the Cleveland Browns losing to the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, the New York Giants can no longer secure the first-overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Cleveland’s loss means they are guaranteed a top-three pick.
The final weekend of the 2024 NFL season is here.
For some teams, that brings one last chance to clinch a playoff spot.
For others, that means one more game before the offseason begins, and a final game towards solidifying their spot in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Four teams — the New England Patriots, the Tennessee Titans, the Cleveland Browns, and the New York Giants — enter Week 18 with a 3-13 record. Those four teams have the best odds of securing the first-overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft.
There are also five teams — the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Carolina Panthers, the New York Jets, the Chicago Bears, and the Las Vegas Raiders — entering Week 18 with a 4-12 record. However, due to the Strength of Schedule tiebreaker, none of those teams have a chance at the first pick, as New England holds a big advantage in this tiebreaker. More on that in a moment.
For lack of a better phrase, the Patriots control their own destiny when it comes to locking up the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. With a loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, New England would secure the No. 1 pick.
However, Buffalo has already indicated that Josh Allen will only make a brief appearance in this game, as the Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. While unlikely, there is a scenario where the Patriots do not lose on Sunday, meaning some other pathways to the first-overall selection are worth mentioning.
New England can secure the No. 1 pick if their game against the Bills ends in a tie. With a tie against Buffalo, a Titans win or tie against the Houston Texans, a Browns win or tie against the Baltimore Ravens, and a New York Giants tie against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Patriots clinch the first pick. They can also clinch the first pick with a tie, a Titans win or tie, a Browns tie, and a Giants win or tie. Finally, they can clinch the first pick with a tie, a Titans tie, a Browns win or tie, and a Giants win or tie.
If the Patriots end up winning Sunday, they can still clinch the first pick if the Titans, Browns, and Giants all win. All four teams would have a 4-13 record, but the Patriots currently hold a significant advantage in the tiebreaker, which is Strength of Schedule (SOS). At the moment New England’s SOS is .467, Tennessee checks in at .515, Cleveland at .540, and New York at .551.
For determining draft order, the lower your SOS, the higher your draft pick.
New England’s big advantage in this category is why they remain in the driver’s seat for the first-overall pick. It is also why the 4-12 teams remain on the outside looking in when it comes to the No. 1 pick. Of those teams only Jacksonville has a comparable SOS to New England (.474) but with one week remaining the Jaguars cannot make up that difference.
There are two scenarios where the Titans can secure the first-overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft.
First, with a loss to the Texans and a Patriots win or tie against Buffalo, the Titans have the first pick.
If the Titans tie the Texans, Tennessee still secures the first-overall selection with a Patriots win over Buffalo, a Cleveland win or tie against Houston, and a New York win or tie against Philadelphia.
Cleveland’s path to the first-overall selection is a bit steeper than Tennessee’s, but still plausible.
With a loss to the Ravens, a New England win or tie against Buffalo, and a Titans win or tie against Houston, the Browns clinch the first-overall pick.
Cleveland can also clinch the No. 1 pick with a tie, provided both the Titans and the Patriots win, and the Giants win or tie against the Eagles.
Finally, the Giants enter the final week of the season with an outside shot at the No. 1 pick.
With a loss to the Eagles, the Giants would pick first if the Patriots win or tie against the Bills, the Titans win or tie against the Texans, and the Browns win or tie against the Ravens.
New York will also pick first if they tie the Eagles, and the Patriots, Titans, and Browns all win.
