The 119th Congress should be getting sworn in on Friday. However, the Republican Party's inability to act like rational adults could throw a wrench in that plan.
That's because it looks like Speaker Mike Johnson does not have the votes to win a new term as speaker on the first ballot. Without a speaker, members cannot be sworn in. And without any members, the House isn't able to conduct any business—including gathering for a joint session on Jan. 6 to certify Donald Trump's unfortunate victory.
Johnson can afford to lose just one vote and still become speaker, as the GOP has an extremely narrow majority with just 219 seats.
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, is a definite no on Johnson's speakership.
“You can pull all my fingernails out. You can shove bamboo up in them. You can start cutting off my fingers. I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow, and you can take that to the bank,” Massie said in an interview on now-former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s new show on little-watched right-wing network One America News.
Just one more GOP defection would cause Johnson to fall below a majority, and according to Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, he and a number of other House Republicans are not yet set on voting for Johnson.
Trump, for his part, wished Johnson well in the race, and gave Johnson his blessing.
“Good luck today for Speaker Mike Johnson, a fine man of great ability, who is very close to having 100% support,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. “A win for Mike today will be a big win for the Republican Party, and yet another acknowledgment of our 129 year most consequential Presidential Election!! - A BIG AFFIRMATION, INDEED. MAGA!”
Johnson thanked Trump for the endorsement, adding that “Congressional Republicans must stay united to quickly deliver President Trump’s America First agenda.”
But it’s unclear whether Trump’s endorsement will be enough, as GOP hardliners who refuse to admit the reality that lawmaking requires compromise are angry that Johnson negotiated with Democrats to keep the government funded and open.
Yet with most things for those Republican hardliners, they haven’t thought as far as to what happens after they block Johnson from winning on the first ballot. At the moment, no one has said they will challenge Johnson for the gavel. And without an alternative, those Republicans are merely delaying the inevitable.
It’s like deja vu from 2023, when it took 15 rounds of voting before former Speaker Kevin McCarthy won the gavel.
Ultimately, even if Johnson does win, he will have the unenviable task of lording over an ungovernable Republican conference with the narrowest majority in a generation. Given that he could barely keep Republicans together on a speaker vote doesn’t instill confidence that he’ll be able to shepherd Trump’s agenda through Congress.
Johnson’s speakership, however, will be safer than McCarthy’s, as Republicans are set to vote on a rules change that will make it harder to oust a speaker.
All of the drama is set to begin at noon.
Like Trump said, good luck, Mike! You’ll need it—no matter what happens.
