SO-called good things win and so called good things lose — but whatever the outcome history dictates it’s crazy being afraid of one horse.
The concept had me scratching my head when earlier this week The Jukebox Man’s trainer Ben Pauling suggested he is tempted to swerve a smash up with new-kid-on-the-block Sir Gino in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival.
‘Step By Step’ or hoof by hoof he looks a giant.
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The Jukebox Man is owned by football legend Harry Redknapp and of his recent Grade 1 Kempton hero, Pauling said: “I’ll give him an entry in the Arkle and the Brown Advisory.
“If it came up bottomless or properly soft, I’d be tempted to look at two miles, but I must admit that was before I saw Sir Gino.
“I think he looks an exceptional talent at that trip and I think Nicky Henderson could have another Sprinter Sacre on his hands. With that in mind, would I take him on? I don’t know, but we’ll give ourselves the option.”
My Saturday NAP
Drop back in trip should be no problem at all for this progressive mare.
Many reading this would agree with Pauling and, being honest, I’d be one of them.
But it still doesn’t make it the right decision.
In broadcasting I talk about this or that ‘will win’ almost every day of my life, and of course like most people I’m wrong more often than I’m right.
There are no certainties in horse racing.
Sir Gino started off this season with a breathtaking success in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and wouldn’t be out of place in the Champion Hurdle.
Henderson, however, has always oozed joy about how he has schooled over bigger obstacles and he may scare many off in the Arkle.
The possibility of a small field has to be high.
With that in mind, surely those that swerve Henderson’s machine will head to the Brown Advisory.
Remember, there is no two-and-a half-mile Grade 1 novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival now. It’s one or t’other.
A big field in the Advisory might not make winning it easy. And in any case, you might meet Ballyburn over ‘his’ trip, rather than the speed test he was pulverised at by Sir Gino in the Wayward Lad over Christmas.
But most importantly, as I suggested at the top, good things get beat.
If every one had been dodged then racing history would have been altered dramatically for the worse.
Racing legend Desert Orchid was 10-11 in the 1990 Gold Cup, but was denied by 100-1 Norton’s Coin.
Douvan was 2-9 in the 1990 Champion Chase and only could manage seventh behind Special Tiara.
El Fabiolo was also 2-9 in that race last year and was pulled up.
Kasbah Bliss was 10-11 in the 2009 Stayers’ Hurdle and ended up in fourth, while famously Annie Power was 1-2 for the 2015 Mares’ Hurdle and fell at the last.
There are loads of other examples, and the simple truth is if you look at favourites at Cheltenham since 2015 the most to have won was in 2022 when 11 scored in 25 races.
There were also 10 out of the 25 in 2016.
Away from those two years, you can average between just over 20 per cent to 34 per cent market leaders winning each year.
Racing needs big clashes to grab the public’s imagination.
There are so many chances for top class horses to swerve each other in a season, but ultimately Cheltenham should be about proving you are best of the best. None of this shirking the issue nonsense.
As an owner, trainer or jockey, that should be how you think.
For yourself, and for the sport you participate in.
The moment it’s simply whether ‘this is an easy win’ then the concept of the game falls apart.
I think Sir Gino could be an extraordinary beast over fences and that he’s the most likely winner of the 2025 Arkle.
I say that not ignoring the Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough and L’Eau Du Sud, who looked pretty useful in the Henry VIII at Sandown.
The Jukebox Man might need further but in testing conditions — if it came up like that — he’d be at least a proper rival to Sir Gino and his presence would light up the event.
Added to all that, Redknapp knows better than anyone that a short-priced good thing can get turned over.
In 2012 he was 1-10 to become the new England Football manager, something I would have absolutely loved to have seen.
Yes, I’m a Tottenham fan, but I always felt Harry would bring life to English football.
In the end the FA snubbed him in favour of Roy Hodgson. That worked out rather well didn’t it . . .
So it didn’t happen. But Harry brings life to many things, and he and Pauling shouldn’t run away from doing so to the Arkle.
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