With less than 24 hours left until the start of the 119th Congress, Mike Johnson doesn’t have the votes yet to remain speaker.
The Louisiana Republican has been working diligently over the past few days to lock down the 218 votes he needs, even after spending the holidays working the phones and meeting with incoming President-elect Donald Trump. But even the incoming president’s repeated endorsement earlier this week doesn’t mean Johnson is guaranteed a victory. Roughly a dozen Republicans are still on the fence, as some of them try to get concessions on the rules or commitments from Johnson on spending.
There are some positive signs for the speaker. In addition to Trump’s restated backing, Johnson has managed to keep his official “no” votes to only one so far — Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). And one notable holdout, Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), is back in Johnson’s camp. Plus, despite multiple conservatives expressing reservations about Johnson, there’s not a clear alternative candidate who could get the votes.
And Johnson’s allies believe they’re making progress in decreasing the number of Republicans who are outwardly opposed to him retaining the gavel, according to two Republicans familiar with the conversations, viewing them as “pretty soft holdouts.” Still, the speaker’s allies privately admit he may not be able to win on the first few ballots.
“I think we'll get it done,” Johnson told Fox News on Thursday about the Friday speaker vote. “I've talked to every single one of those friends and colleagues over the holidays.”
In addition to Gosar, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), a close ally of Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), said on Thursday that he’s backing Johnson, noting that “Trump wants Speaker Johnson.” Incoming Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), who is likely to join the Freedom Caucus, also pointed to Trump’s backing, saying “Mike’s the guy.”
The speakership vote will be the first test of House Republicans’ ability to unify this year, as they hope to achieve ambitious legislative goals on the border, energy and taxes with full control of Congress and the White House. As the Johnson drama shows, Trump’s backing doesn’t necessarily mean Republicans can pass their priorities, given an incredibly narrow margin in the House and a wide ideological range among GOP lawmakers.
Still, Johnson and his allies are putting Trump at the center of their two main arguments as they try to sway the holdouts. First, they point out that a messy, drawn-out speaker's race risks a delay in certifying Trump’s presidential win on Jan. 6. Second, if Republicans are consumed with trying to iron out their own leadership it overshadows the start of the second Trump administration, right at a time when leaders want to look unified. In recent weeks, Trump has privately warned GOP lawmakers against doing anything that takes away from the start of his second presidency, according to one GOP lawmaker who has spoken with him, granted anonymity to speak frankly.
And his allies are also pointing out the conference has the same problem it did after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted, when Johnson first rose to the perch. All the potential alternatives — such as Majority Leader Steve Scalise, GOP Whip Tom Emmer (Minn.) and Jordan — still have problems that would prevent them from getting the requisite votes. Even some of Johnson’s skeptics acknowledge it’s a significant problem.
“Who would want the job?” asked Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), who remains undecided on supporting Johnson and is pushing for commitments on spending.
Trump said on New Year's Eve that he’ll make calls on Johnson’s behalf, but there’s still lingering skepticism that Trump will actively step in to save Johnson.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) made calls to other House Republicans over the holiday recess to vibe-check Jordan and other potential candidates if Johnson can’t the votes — outreach first reported by POLITICO.
Jordan, Scalise and Emmer all made bids for the gavel following McCarthy’s ouster last year but are now supporting Johnson. Members of the House Freedom Caucus have also floated Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who brushed off any interest to reporters late last year.
“I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues, because we saw so many of the failures last year,” Roy told Fox Business. “Right now, I don’t believe he has the votes on Friday.”
